Risks

What defines a bad risk? One that is unsuccessful, or one that will be unsuccessful in the long run?

I like risks. I have a lot more gamble in me than most of the people I play with live, more so than those online. I just struggle to determine when my risk taking is good or bad. Here's an example from last night.

I hadn't played any $35+3 FT SNGs in a while, so I decided to play a few and nothing was going right. I was getting counterfitted, or just plain sucked out on left-right-and-center in the 3 games I played. I didn't think I was playing poorly, but one can never tell at the time. So after 3 games where I finished 5th, 7th and 9th (a rarity I end up last), I took a break, came back and played a little cash (25PLO8 and then 50PLO8) before noticing that the $105+9 tourney was filling up.

I've never played at this level, though I had notes on a couple of the players from the lower levels (35+3, 55+5). I looked at my stats for the night, and if I played and lost, and lost the cash I still had at the 50PLO8 table, I would have been out $200 on the night. I (maybe rationalized that I) was going to be ok with that loss if I didn't place, so I registered.

So here are my thoughts for taking the risk:
1) In general, I place in 30-40% of the FT tables I play making any tourney I play +EV
2) I had been playing well in the previous tourneys, and just getting unlucky, and was playing well in the cash games.
3) I didn't think that, if I'm playing well, that I would not place in 4 tourneys in a row.
4) I was ok with playing and losing, thereby I was not playing with scared money.

Am I simply convincing myself that I didn't take a bad risk, or, did I really take a good risk?

In the end, I finished up $25 at the 25PLO8 table, up $41 at the 50PLO8 table, and placed 2nd in the $105+9, for an overall night of >$160 profit. I finally crossed the 8k barrier after flirting with it for a while, which is a little psychological milestone I happy to have passed. The question I still have lingering is: Was I stupid and was lucky to place inthe $105+9, or was that a smart decision that actually panned out?