So I was playing 1/2 NLHE at Snake's Poekr club last night (www.snakespoker.com). It's a nice place with good staff about 20-30 minutes from my place. I'd already lost 1 buy-in when I limped with Ac7c and the board came 762-7. The table was loose/passive, so I'd be limping with hands that would make me the nuts if I hit. I bet my TPTK on the flop from EP and was called by a LP 2 to my left and a LAG across the table, who would come along with *any* draw or piece of the flop. The LAG had position on both of us, so when the second 7 hit on the turn, I checked fully expecting the LAG to bet. Instead the LP moved all-in for $30 to a $30ish pot. LAG called. WTF? Not what I was expecting, but since I had $155 behind, I was pretty sure I was ahead of LAG and behind LP. The question is whether LAG would call a raise from me. I tested the waters and moved all-in. If he folds, then I'll see that I can make some over-the-top moves on him, but I'm pretty sure I'm rooting for a call here with his second best. That's exactly what I got. LAG turns over K7 for second best to me (the side pot is $240 between us, and the main pot is $120). LP turns over 66 for a well played flopped set. The K on the river spoils the fun and LAG scoops the pot, causing me to rebuy.
This is important for the next hand, because I think I'm running a little scared of losing another stack. This time, I'm in 6th position, with mostly newer players at the table. A couple of limpers come in, and I raise to $12 with QdQh. Folds to the SB who raises it to $27. He's been somewhat active with the betting, but not 3-betting. We both have about $275 total. It folds back to me. I'm trying to figure out what he'd 3-bet me with here. Obviously, AA/KK/AK are in his range. What else? AQ/AJ/AT? JJ/TT/99? Since there hasn't been a ton of 3-betting, I'm rating the first 3 hands highest weight, and the others a smaller possibility. So, I may have made a mistake not trying to define my hand here and re-raising, but I decide to call, and evaluate the flop. It comes 6c 2c 6s. Unfortunately, now things are fuzzy. I can't remember, if he bets and I call, or if I bet and he calls. I think it is the latter, because I remember wondering what kind of hand would he call here with. I'm now leaning more towards a float with Ax than anything else.
The turn comes the As. Dammit scare card to hell. Again I get fuzzy on the betting order, but now, I end up in a situation when I'm looking at a $50 bet to me, which I think is a check-raise and I really have to decide if I'm putting the rest of my $200 stack in or folding. In the end, I muck my QQ face up and I get him to turn over 44. Dammit. I never thought he would have played a hand like that in that manner.
So why is this a good fold? Well, I still think he makes that play with all the hands I've listed above, so him having an A is much more likely than having a pocket pair lower than mine. I went to ProPokerTools to validate my theory, and this is what I found:
What I assumed his range is: Aa, ak, aq, aj, at, 77, 88, 99, tt, jj, kk,
http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=6c+6s+2c+As&g=he&h1=Qd+Qh&h2=Aa%2C+ak%2C+aq%2C+aj%2C+at%2C+77%2C+88%2C+99%2C+tt%2C+jj%2C+kk%2C
What his new likely range is: Aa, ak, aq, aj, at, 44, 55, 77, 88, 99, tt, jj, kk,
http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=6c+6s+2c+As&g=he&h1=Qd+Qh&h2=Aa%2C+ak%2C+aq%2C+aj%2C+at%2C+44%2C+55%2C+77%2C+88%2C+99%2C+tt%2C+jj%2C+kk%2C
So, even though I'm actually ahead here in this specific case, the aggregate likelyhood of me winning that pot against his range is -EV or close to 0 due to the size of the pot already.
Only when I remove AT from his range do I really start to come out ahead. The tools don't let me add a percentage to his AT, as in he'll raise there with AT 50% of the time, just to reduce it's weight on the calculation. But, I can assume AT in this analysis is just the aggregate of all the other Ax hands he might be playing there.
Friday, November 19, 2010
Massive downswing
I haven't been blogging in a while because I've been on a massive downswing which wiped out most of my 2010 gains for the year. I'm still in the black, but the toll of the downswing just didn't make me want to talk about it.
The thing is, this is exactly when I should write. If I'm proud enough of my wins to write about them, I should be humble enough to enumerate my losses as well. I don't know if I'm going to exhaustively go through my losses, but to put it in perspective, I'm only up 1.5k on the year now after being up 13k at one point.
That said, an interesting hand came up last night playing 1/2 NLHE at an Indian Reservation card room that I'd like to analyze, but I don't think I could blog about it without a mea culpa on my recent absence first.
I'm back now, for good, bad and ugly.
The thing is, this is exactly when I should write. If I'm proud enough of my wins to write about them, I should be humble enough to enumerate my losses as well. I don't know if I'm going to exhaustively go through my losses, but to put it in perspective, I'm only up 1.5k on the year now after being up 13k at one point.
That said, an interesting hand came up last night playing 1/2 NLHE at an Indian Reservation card room that I'd like to analyze, but I don't think I could blog about it without a mea culpa on my recent absence first.
I'm back now, for good, bad and ugly.
Saturday, September 11, 2010
WCOOP event 18 - 100k guaranteed 8-game
I would love to have played more WCOOP events, but the problem is that most start earlier in the day, so responsible amateurs with families, like yours truly, can't play in them. I can only play in the events starting after the kids are asleep so that's limiting me to anything after 8PM.
I found event 18, the 8-game event, was interesting. I do well in the HORSE games, and I've played PLO and NLHE, so the only game of the 8 that I have not really played is the 2-7 triple draw.
In that vain, I decided to play a few satellites to try and win my way in, but also to practice 2-7. I'm glad I did, because I don't play it very well. Being used to razz and stud8/b, where straights and flushes don't count against you and A is low, it took a lot of concentration to force those thoughts out of my head. I lost most of my chips in that level during the satellites. After I failed to satellite my way in, I re-read the 2-7 chapter in SuperSystem. Even though it's focused on NL single draw, the chapter points out the greatest and simplest leaks to plug. For example, it listed that drawing to hands without already holding a 2 is a very risky play. So, even though I saw that opponents were drawing 2 or 3 on the first draw often, it's not the right thing to do.
With that in mind, I tried to play that level tight, and then play my regular strategy for the rest of the other games. It didn't start out as well as I'd hoped...
You began the tourney with 3k in chips. There were 5 minute game levels, though the blinds only increase every other level (10 minutes). The order of the games was: 2-7, LHE, LO8, Razz, Stud, Stud8, NLHE, PLO.
In just the first few hands, I had already gone down to 2500 and then back up to 2900 playing 2-7. Not the way I wanted to start. I got out of 2-7 with just over 3k, so thankfully I righted the ship, and re-focused on playing the way I should.
Unfortunately, PT3 doesn't track the 8-game tourney hands, so I didn't save critical hands. Mostly, I had a slow steady rise in my chips the first pass through the games. I was around 4.5k at the first break. About 1/2 way between the first and second break, I got in a big hand playing PLO. I was on the button with Ad4dTcJd. It folded to me and I raised pot. The SB re-raised pot and I called. The flop came 8hKsQd giving me a hell of a draw, with each card giving me the nuts. The SB bet 1/2 the pot, and I thought for a while and finally pushed all-in believing that if he had only AA, then I'll have plenty of outs if he calls, but some fold equity as well. He snap calls, making me think I ran into a set. In the end, it was nearly as bad as he turned over Kc Jc Qh Ts for top-2 with open-ended straight draw. Turn is a 9 giving us both our straight. Now we are both chasing 4 outs for the scoop (me 2xJ, 2xT, him 2xK 2xQ). I bink my J on the river and scoop the pot. My opponent states "well played", to which I reply "sarcasm deserved". So I got lucky. I'm grateful, and now I have 9k in chips. At the second break, I'm just around 11k in chips.
Now, this may seem great, but the fact of the matter is, it isn't. PS typically pays about 1/8 to 1/9 of the players, therefore, to really guarantee me a cash, I need to get closer to 8x (24k) or 9x (27k) of my starting stack, but now, the blind levels are getting so high that the 1k and 2k stacks are playing any hands for their entire stacks and 2k is still 20% of my stack, so I can't just attack indiscriminately. I work my 11k stack to about 16k in the middle of the 3rd hour, but after that I just go card dead. I folded almost every hand, except the bring in, through the 3 levels of razz, stud and stud8. I play a couple of NLHE and PLO hands, and drop to 11k. Then, comes 2-7, and I'm bouncing around from 11k to 6k then back up to 10k. We're at about 350 players, and I get crippled in PLO8, to 4k in chips. So that's when I started to do what I hate the most: stalling. I resigned myself to the fact that I was card dead and that if I wanted to cash, I needed to use my time judiciously. Therefore, every decision of mine took all of my allotted time, plus 5 seconds from my TIME bank, which is an amount of time I can use at my discretion, but usually reserved for critical decisions.
There were 1671 starting players, and they were paying 216, so I had to get through 150 eliminations, though at the blinds this high, my 4k of chips could probably make it happen. And that's what happened. I burned off 2k in chips, until the bubble burst. Then, waiting another couple more hands, I was able to move up 2 more pay spots (groups of 12 players) before playing my last hand, which ironically was 2-7. I ended up with a 9 high, and my 2 opponents both made 8 highs, and took my chips.
So 187th out of 1671 is not bad at all for my first 8-game tourney, in a WCOOP event no less, so I'm proud. I made a few mistakes throughout the tourney. Mostly, PS players are more loose than UB players, so the Razz and Stud8 hands which I got UB players to fold with my aggression in the UBOC event were not being folded by the PS players in the WCOOP event, so I lost a few bets in those games. Total profit, taking away the money lost in the satellites was $68.48. Not spectacular, but a profit nonetheless.
Next up will likely be the NLO8 tournament on the 24th, assuming I don't have a baseball game that night (playoffs).
I found event 18, the 8-game event, was interesting. I do well in the HORSE games, and I've played PLO and NLHE, so the only game of the 8 that I have not really played is the 2-7 triple draw.
In that vain, I decided to play a few satellites to try and win my way in, but also to practice 2-7. I'm glad I did, because I don't play it very well. Being used to razz and stud8/b, where straights and flushes don't count against you and A is low, it took a lot of concentration to force those thoughts out of my head. I lost most of my chips in that level during the satellites. After I failed to satellite my way in, I re-read the 2-7 chapter in SuperSystem. Even though it's focused on NL single draw, the chapter points out the greatest and simplest leaks to plug. For example, it listed that drawing to hands without already holding a 2 is a very risky play. So, even though I saw that opponents were drawing 2 or 3 on the first draw often, it's not the right thing to do.
With that in mind, I tried to play that level tight, and then play my regular strategy for the rest of the other games. It didn't start out as well as I'd hoped...
You began the tourney with 3k in chips. There were 5 minute game levels, though the blinds only increase every other level (10 minutes). The order of the games was: 2-7, LHE, LO8, Razz, Stud, Stud8, NLHE, PLO.
In just the first few hands, I had already gone down to 2500 and then back up to 2900 playing 2-7. Not the way I wanted to start. I got out of 2-7 with just over 3k, so thankfully I righted the ship, and re-focused on playing the way I should.
Unfortunately, PT3 doesn't track the 8-game tourney hands, so I didn't save critical hands. Mostly, I had a slow steady rise in my chips the first pass through the games. I was around 4.5k at the first break. About 1/2 way between the first and second break, I got in a big hand playing PLO. I was on the button with Ad4dTcJd. It folded to me and I raised pot. The SB re-raised pot and I called. The flop came 8hKsQd giving me a hell of a draw, with each card giving me the nuts. The SB bet 1/2 the pot, and I thought for a while and finally pushed all-in believing that if he had only AA, then I'll have plenty of outs if he calls, but some fold equity as well. He snap calls, making me think I ran into a set. In the end, it was nearly as bad as he turned over Kc Jc Qh Ts for top-2 with open-ended straight draw. Turn is a 9 giving us both our straight. Now we are both chasing 4 outs for the scoop (me 2xJ, 2xT, him 2xK 2xQ). I bink my J on the river and scoop the pot. My opponent states "well played", to which I reply "sarcasm deserved". So I got lucky. I'm grateful, and now I have 9k in chips. At the second break, I'm just around 11k in chips.
Now, this may seem great, but the fact of the matter is, it isn't. PS typically pays about 1/8 to 1/9 of the players, therefore, to really guarantee me a cash, I need to get closer to 8x (24k) or 9x (27k) of my starting stack, but now, the blind levels are getting so high that the 1k and 2k stacks are playing any hands for their entire stacks and 2k is still 20% of my stack, so I can't just attack indiscriminately. I work my 11k stack to about 16k in the middle of the 3rd hour, but after that I just go card dead. I folded almost every hand, except the bring in, through the 3 levels of razz, stud and stud8. I play a couple of NLHE and PLO hands, and drop to 11k. Then, comes 2-7, and I'm bouncing around from 11k to 6k then back up to 10k. We're at about 350 players, and I get crippled in PLO8, to 4k in chips. So that's when I started to do what I hate the most: stalling. I resigned myself to the fact that I was card dead and that if I wanted to cash, I needed to use my time judiciously. Therefore, every decision of mine took all of my allotted time, plus 5 seconds from my TIME bank, which is an amount of time I can use at my discretion, but usually reserved for critical decisions.
There were 1671 starting players, and they were paying 216, so I had to get through 150 eliminations, though at the blinds this high, my 4k of chips could probably make it happen. And that's what happened. I burned off 2k in chips, until the bubble burst. Then, waiting another couple more hands, I was able to move up 2 more pay spots (groups of 12 players) before playing my last hand, which ironically was 2-7. I ended up with a 9 high, and my 2 opponents both made 8 highs, and took my chips.
So 187th out of 1671 is not bad at all for my first 8-game tourney, in a WCOOP event no less, so I'm proud. I made a few mistakes throughout the tourney. Mostly, PS players are more loose than UB players, so the Razz and Stud8 hands which I got UB players to fold with my aggression in the UBOC event were not being folded by the PS players in the WCOOP event, so I lost a few bets in those games. Total profit, taking away the money lost in the satellites was $68.48. Not spectacular, but a profit nonetheless.
Next up will likely be the NLO8 tournament on the 24th, assuming I don't have a baseball game that night (playoffs).
Friday, September 3, 2010
QQ from hell
PokerStars had it in for me tonight...
Nightly 70k: Flop Jd7d2c, I'm holding As7s 2nd to act. Pot is 575, I bet out 325, and get called by the person to my left, the other folds. Turn is the 7h, I bet 525 into the 1225 pot and get called. The river makes the diamond flush, but since my opponent has been raising flush draws in position, I don't think he has the flush, so I bet out 725 (with 1425 left behind after) into the 2275 pot, and he moves all-in with 6k. I call expecting to see a J. Unfortunately, I see 2 of them for a flopped set and turn FH. Fuck....
Nightly 100k: Blinds 100/200, player in early position moves in for 2.2k. I call with QQ and we are HU. He tables AQ, and immediately flops his A. Fine, I've still got 1.6k left. 2 hands later, I'm in middle position, folds to me with QQ, and I put the rest of my chips in. Player to my left calls, and we are HU. He tables AK, and proceeds to flop AhKh8h. I have some hope since I have the Qh, but alas, that was just for torture purposes, since it went blank blank after that, and I'm now knocked out of that tournament. Double fuck...
Nightly 70k: Flop Jd7d2c, I'm holding As7s 2nd to act. Pot is 575, I bet out 325, and get called by the person to my left, the other folds. Turn is the 7h, I bet 525 into the 1225 pot and get called. The river makes the diamond flush, but since my opponent has been raising flush draws in position, I don't think he has the flush, so I bet out 725 (with 1425 left behind after) into the 2275 pot, and he moves all-in with 6k. I call expecting to see a J. Unfortunately, I see 2 of them for a flopped set and turn FH. Fuck....
Nightly 100k: Blinds 100/200, player in early position moves in for 2.2k. I call with QQ and we are HU. He tables AQ, and immediately flops his A. Fine, I've still got 1.6k left. 2 hands later, I'm in middle position, folds to me with QQ, and I put the rest of my chips in. Player to my left calls, and we are HU. He tables AK, and proceeds to flop AhKh8h. I have some hope since I have the Qh, but alas, that was just for torture purposes, since it went blank blank after that, and I'm now knocked out of that tournament. Double fuck...
Sunday, August 29, 2010
Hand analysis
I marked 15 hands for review on my night of hell last Thursday (see EV graphs from previous post). I want to analyze these and find mistakes that I can correct. Hopefully it won't be too difficult to read seeing that I'm mostly writing this for myself to help me walk through the hands properly.
Hand #1 400PLO8:
I've got AhQsJh7h in the SB/BTN playing HU against S2D (VPIP=40, PFR/25). I raise to $12 PF, and he calls. Flop is 7c Tc Kh. I've got a pair plus a wrap. Odds are my opponent missed that flop (unless he's got a flush draw), so I'm likely ahead, but want to win this here. I bet $20 and get check-raised pot ($84). This bet is screaming FD to me, so I call $64 (pot is $192 and opponent has $115 behind). I'm either ahead or have draws to be ahead. The turn is the Qh, giving me the nut straight and the heart nut flush draw (NFD). My opponent moves all-in, to which I gladly call. He spikes his club on the river.
Flop: http://twodimes.net/h/?z=7508940
Turn http://twodimes.net/h/?z=7508939
Analysis: Almost everything here, except the call of the check/raise, is standard. My starting hand is a poor raising hand full table, but a good raising hand HU. The cbet on the flop is right in that most opponents are playing low draws and it has plenty of fold equity. Now, should I have called the check-raise? I have 3 options: fold, call, or push him all-in. I've only got a straight draw+ at this point, and am a definite dog to a FD+ at this point (which happens to be his actual hand with Kc9c5d4d), but a favorite to a simple FD (change Kc to Ac or Qc). I'm a dog to a set, though I'm getting the right price ((64+115)/(64+115+115+128)). Apparently, this is a borderline push. Given the amount he has left after the check/raise, I'm thinking now that I've got 0 fold equity in this spot. So, I think I've got a 0EV situation on the all-in push. As for the call, I've got position, which will help me assuming he doesn't shove every turn. Even then, I've got 11 cards (non-club A, Q, J, 9 and 7) which give me a solid hand against his range. In reality, I think I'm only folding the 9 clubs and 6 K's or T's left in the deck, since I already believe that I'm ahead or close to it at this point.
Conclusion: Nothing wrong with the way it was played, I'd do it again.
Hand #2 400PLO8:
I've got Kd5d2s2h in the SB/BTN HU against S2D. I raise to $12 PF, and he calls. I flop the nut flush on a AdQd8d board. He checks, I bet $18 and he calls (pot now $56). The tells me he has a flush as well with some low cards. He's trying to scoop when he hits his low. The turn is the 3h. This is a good turn for me, since it may have counterfitted his low. I now have nut/second-nut. He checks, I bet out $36 and he calls (pot now $128). The river is the 9d. A blank for all intents and purposes. He all of a sudden leads out for $128, I have nut/second-nut so I push my remaining $278 to the middle, and he calls. Oh, wait, I don't have nut/second-nut, I have second-nut/second-nut. The MF'er just rivered a straight flush to escape with half the pot. I was so far ahead on the turn.
Conclusion: As played, I think I got the most money in the pot as I could. However, that hand pissed me off, and kind of stuck to me. It started my negative thought spiral.
Hand #3 400PLO8:
In the SB/BTN against S2D. I limp with 8dTc4h3d. S2D raises from the BB to $12 and I call. He's telling me he has an A with some other good cards. The flop comes Js9dQd. I've got second-nut straight with a weak FD. He checks and I bet pot ($24) and he calls. I'm not liking that call. He's got something that works with that flop. I'm either beat or he's drawing better than me. The turn is a Kh. He checks, and I check as well. The card makes a bunch of hands that he can have now beat me (AT, KT, QT, JT, T9), and I don't think I'm ahead enough times to bet. The river is a Qh. If I wasn't beat on the turn, I'm pretty sure I'm beat now. It's possible he had a naked FD on the flop, but I doubt that. He checks, which actually tells me that he didn't boat up, but I check behind him and he tables Ad4c6hTh. Turned a 3 outer straight.
Conclusion: This guy is nuts. The only thing that makes sense is that he's drawing to a 3 outer + naked Ace bluff. Sucks that I had to lose this hand on the 3 outer though. This hand continues my anger spiral even if I only lost $36...
Hand #4 400PLO8:
5 handed with UG1 (VPIP=14,PFR=4), TWP (VPIP=33,PFR=15), RD (VPIP=25, PFR=7), and OMGD (VPIP=36, PFR=27). UG1 is uber tight, and very predictable. I like playing against him. RD is not as tight, but still predictable enough that I don't mind him at the table. TWP is a tough hombre. I lost $800 HU to him one night, but figured out how he plays me, and which hands he wants to push against me. As such, I got my money back in a few rings games against him a few days later when I caught him in bad spots. Since then, he's been playing tighter against me, so it seems he is respecting my play and when he bets into me, he means business. OMGD is new. I only have 250 hands against him, but he seems to be too loose and can be caught in bad situations. I want to play against him and try to flop a huge hand.
I'm on the BTN with Ks6sQdJc. It folds (TWP, RD) to me, so I pop it to $14. OMGD in the SB re-pops it to $46, and UG1 folds. He's loose enough that I call. Actually, this is a mistake, and one of the biggest problems I have. Clearly I can find a better spot to put my money in against this guy. I need to be more judicious when calling 3-bets, and this hand only has 1-way value with no low. It's a piss poor candidate for calling a 3-bet with.
The flop comes Kc3s6d. Ok, not so bad for my holding. I'm likely ahead for high. Against random AA hands, A2 hands, I'm even money. I'm a slight dog against AK2*, and probably the worst against A45*. So when he bets the pot ($96) on the flop, which is consistent with an AA** play, I see an opportunity to take his stack so I jump on it and re-pop it to $311, which is what he has left. He tables As3d9dKh for flopped top-bottom 2-pair and backdoor low, which is behind my hand. He turns his 9h, and I blank on the river (2h).
Conclusion: I got myself into this mess, by calling a 3-bet with too weak a hand PF. I should control that more, even against super aggro players. I don't think my flop play is bad. It's a fold or push play, and I'm getting 311/717 which is good enough odds (even assuming 0 fold equity) for most of my opponents range except A45*.
Hand #5 400PLO8:
In the BB HU against S2D with AhKh7s3s. We both have about $400. He min-raises to $8, and I re-pop it to $24 and he calls. I don't like 3-betting OOP from the blinds very often, as it gives away the strength of my hand. But given the way S2D has been playing, he's calling my bet with significantly weaker hands often enough to compensate for the fact I've announce how strong my hand is. The flop comes Qs8s7d. I've got a strong hand HU: pair + weak FD + 2nd nut low draw. I have to bet out here, especially since I'm either going to be called or re-raised. No point in check-raising, if I can get all his chips in the middle by betting first. I make a pot sized bet ($48) and he gladly re-pops it to $192. I move in for $388 and he calls showing Qh7h3c4d. I'm a 3:2 favorite at this point. The turn is the 9s and river is the 2d and I scoop the pot.
Conclusion: Good hand, played well, good result. So few of those during that session.
Hand #6 400PLO8
7-handed (SB= opp1, BB=GURC, RD, opp2, me, opp3, UG1), holding Ah6hTc9d with $143 behind. This is the same table as hand #4, but about an hour later. RD limps, opp2 folds, I call, opp3 calls, UG1 folds, SB completes and GURC checks. Flop comes Ts 3d 5h, Everyone checks, to opp3 who makes it $20. Everyone else folds, but I decide to re-pop it on a check raise, to $80, opp3 gladly makes it $140 for the rest of my chips. I call, and find out I'm actually ahead of Kd7d4h2s. However, the turn is a Jc and the river is a 6s, completing their up and down straight draw.
Analysis: What was I thinking on the check-raise? I'm not sure... I didn't check with the intention of raising. I checked because I had no idea where anyone was at that point in time and my hand was so-so. But once opp3 bet and everyone else folded, my hand got stronger. However, in retrospect, it still wasn't strong enough to warrant a check-raise. I have TPTK, and 4th best low draw, and any card that improves my low draw, makes a straight possible on the board. I'm putting up $80 to win $40 if opp3 folds or $140 to win $160 if they call/raise. The opponent is unknown, so I should have assumed that they had something. Their actual hand was at the worst part of their possible range, and since they re-raised with it, I now know I had zero fold equity. Against stronger hands, like 246X and sets I'm not getting the right price.
Conclusion: This was a bad play. I gambled on the flop rather than try to think through the situation. Even though this exact situation was +EV when the money was in, for all possible situations taken together, this was a -EV play.
Hand #7 400PLO8:
HU against S2D. I have $750 and he has $400. I'm in the BTN/SB with Tc4d7c5c and I raise to $12 and he calls. The flop comes 5s6d5h. He checks, and I bet pot ($24). This is standard, because, I likely have the best hand here, and want to take the pot down before a low on the turn hits chopping the pot. However, he check-raises me to $96. This is where I make a mistake. I did not stop and think. He's saying he has a 5. His 5 has to be better than mine. I mean, I'm playing T5 right now, so A5, K5, Q5, J5, and 65 all beat me (as does 66). Instead, I ignore the fact that I could just call and play the turn accordingly, I re-pop it to $312, knowing his c/r means he's ready to go to war with his hand. He puts the rest of his chips in and shows Qh6hQd5d for a full house. I'm still +EV at this point, though barely. The cards run Jd Td, and I river a better full house.
Conclusion: This hand should show that I'm not thinking straight this session. I'm lucky to have the better low draw at this point, but in reality, I could have been up against A5[baby]X and been in serious trouble. I need to realize that when I'm more willing to gamble on the flop, it's because it's the easier option than outplaying my opponents. In that case, I should be quitting the game. S2D has shown that he's willing to get in with weak hands, so means that there are going to be plenty of opportunities for me to get his stack and I don't need to jump on any of the marginal opportunities.
Hand #8 400PLO8
4 handed. SB=FN (VPIP=30, PFR=17), BB=opp1, S2D, BTN=me. Folds to me with As5s5cAd. Easy raise to $14. SB min raises to $28. I opt to call, as 4-betting makes it obvious I have AA. Pot is now $60, and FN has $370 behind and I have $825 . Flop comes 6h7d9c. This flop should not have hit my opponent (hands with T8 or 86 are not 3-betting hands typically). A 3-bet from the SB usually means A23, or AAbaby, which is also what I have, so I'm thinking I'm tied or ahead of A23. FN bets $38, and I think I'm ahead, so I push to $174, and then he moves in. Oops. WTF?! I have to call as I'm getting 3:1 on my money at this point. I do, and he flips Ah7h4c7c. I'm WAY behind. I need an A or an 8 for high, and a 4 for low. The board runs Qc Jc, and I lose $400 on the hand.
Analysis: This one is tough for me. I'm a slight dog to AAxx, but in good shape against A23*. I just did not see him waking up with a made hand there. Did I also have to lose $400 in this hand? If my read is right, then I'm +EV. I guess what I learned from this hand is that my 3-bet range for FN is incorrect. It is much wider, and should include a variety of double suited A-baby combinations. If I take that into account, I think the prudent play there would have been to merely call the flop as that is no longer a safe flop for my hand and I still have position. I probably call the turn as well in this case, though can now fold many rivers. In that scenario, I save chips. Now if my opponent has A23x, then he likely checks the turn, and I bet, so I miss out on some equity there if he folds. If he's got AAxx, then I don't think I lose anything as he bets the turn, though I guess I fold that river, so I save some chips there.
Conclusion: Updated FN 3-betting range, and play accordingly. Also, this is another hand where I pushed/gambled the flop rather than played poker.
Hand #9 400PLO8
Same table as above 4 hands later, I'm on the BTN again. Folds to me, I make it $14 with QcJcJh8s. FN in the SB calls. and opp1 folds. $32 in the pot, I have $441 and FN has $785. Flop comes Qd9c7c. FN checks, and I bet the pot. He re-pops it to $128. I make it $416, and he puts the rest of my chips in. He turns over Qs4c3c7s. The river runs 4h 3d, and he scoops the $912 pot. I was actually a favorite when the chips when in.
Analysis: None to be made. I was not playing smart poker here. I wanted to get my chips back from the previous hand, and found myself a flop to do just that. I have top-pair + FD + gut shot straight draw. In reality, we are too deep for me to be calling the check-raise here, but I wasn't thinking about his hand at all. All I saw were my cards and the potential for a huge pot.
Conclusion: If I wasn't on tilt before, losing $900 in the span of 5 minutes has definitely brought me there now.
Hand #10 400PLO8:
Same table as above, I've re-bought and am back up to $536 UTG. I raise with Ks5cJs6c (yes, I'm on tilt, not a good raise). Everyone calls. Pot is $56. Flop comes 5s6s5d. Checked to me, so I bet pot with the underfull. FN folds, opp1 calls, and S2D check-raises to $280, I'm on tilt so I gladly push the rest of my stack in. opp1 folds and S2D calls with Ad4d5hQs. I just need to fade an A or a Q. Even still, I'm a dog because he has the low draw with his hand. I don't get unlucky as the cards run 8h and 3d.
Conclusion: I profit $30 on a hand I should never have been playing in the first place.
Hand #11 200PLO8:
I've opened up a 200PLO8 table to try and reverse my luck. 7 handed, except S2D is also at my table. S2D opens to $7m and I call from the BTN with As5h8cQh. Not actually a bad play. The blinds get out of the way. The flop comes 7d Js Th. He checks, which I believe to mean that he has a good low hand that missed with only 7 low card on the flop. However, I only have a double belly-buster (9 or K for straight), so I check behind. Turn brings the Jh. He bets out $12.50 to a $17 pot. I suspect he is buying the pot (I'm on tilt, so my reads aren't too good). I raise him to $54.50, at which point he calls. When he does this, I have to read that he's either got AA or AhXh. The river comes Td. He checks, I bet out for $96 to a $128 pot. After a long time, he calls. Unfortunately, he hit trips on the river, as he was holding AhAd2cTc.
Analysis: Is that a bad river bet? He knows I'm out of control, so he's going to be calling me light, and it wouldn't be the first time that he's called me with AA to a paired board. The fact that he hit his T was a bonus for him.
Conclusion: If I can face S2D again, I need to remember how light he is going to call my rivers, and milk them for all their worth. As for this hand, it's becoming pretty clear to me why I lost so much money that night.
Hand #12: 400PLO8
4 handed. SB=opp1, BB=S2D ($607), NE14D, me ($670). Folds to me on the BTN, and I make it Ah5h3s6c. S2D re-pops it to $44 and I call. Given the way we've been playing each other for the last 2.5 hours, I have to call, as my hand has good value, though I still have to be careful. Flop comes 2s 4h Jc. A pretty decent flop. I've got nut low draw, and a pair. If I'm against AA2 or A2PP (where PP is a pair), I'm drawing to low. If I'm up against A23X (X not a J), then I'm ahead and looking to quarter my opponent. Given this, and I'm on tilt, I looking to be pushing this flop. He checks, I bet, he check/raises (again!) and I push the rest in. He tables As2c3dTc. Turn is 2h and river is 7c and I'm the one who is quartered.
Analysis: Even though I'm far ahead in this hand, but get unlucky, I shouldn't be moving in on the flop. I should be calling and evaluating the turn. His check/raise means he's willing to go all the way with the hand, so why not take a second to protect yourself against some bad cards on the turn. Also, I'm still behind AA2X, so I should be protecting myself in case that's what I'm up against.
Conclusion: Another hand where I rush to gamble the flop, when in this spot, I could have saved $100 by calling the flop and folding to that 2. I don't see him betting the turn if it comes K or Q unless he has AA2 in this spot, rather than A23, so he'd be telling me if I'm ahead or behind. Any low card and he's committing his chips regardless.
Hand #13 200PLO8
4 handed. SB=me ($255), opp1 ($261), UG1, NE14D. Folds to me, I call with Kc6c9d2d, and opp1 raises to $8 and I call. I should have folded here. This is not a good hand to go against an Ababy hand. Flop comes Kd 2s Qh. I check to check/raise (not a good idea with my hand, but I'm not thinking right), and he bets $12, I raise to $48 and he calls. The turn is the 4d. I have a FD with my 2 pair. I think I'm now solid, so I bet out, and he moves in and I call. He tables Ad Kh 4h 4c, and I'm in trouble. I wasn't even a favorite on the flop, which is the perils of playing top/bottom two pair in this game. However, him turning his set sucked royally! I'm I'm really far behind.
Conclusion: When I'm on tilt, double suited hands look very pretty and playable, when in fact they are simply a money drain unless they had some other merits!
Hand #14 400PLO8
3 handed. SB=opp1, BB=TWP, me ($300). I raise with KsTs9sQd, which is fair 3 handed. SB calls, and TWP re-pops it to $56. My hand plays well against TWP's 3-betting range here. I can double up with the right flop, so $56 to implied $600 is worth it. I call and SB calls. Flop comes KhJdJs. opp1 checks, TWP bets $116 to the $168 pot. I'm trying to break him, so I re-pop to $243 (all-in). He c-bets a lot, so he may very well fold. Unfortunately, opp1 calls in the SB, which means he has a J, which causes TWP to fold. I'm behind to Ad3dJc6h, turn is 4s, giving me hope, and the river is the 3s absolutely breaking my heart because I see winning flush before I realize it's losing flush to full house.
Conclusion: Given my stack size, and no knowledge about opp1, this hand was played correctly to extract maximum from TWP. opp1 just had the right hand at the right time.
Hand #15 400PLO8
5 handed. SB=me ($323), BB=opp1, TWP, opp2, opp3. Fold, call, call, I complete with QsQc4h3h, and BB checks. Flop is Qd Tc 4d. I bet $12 into the $16 pot. BB raises to $24, opp2 calls, opp3 folds, so I decide to protect my set here, and make it $112 to continue. BB folds, but opp2 calls. I put him on a FD. The turn is the 8s. I put the rest of my chips in the middle, only to see that I walked into a massive wrap on the flop: AhJsKs9c. We were even money on the flop, but he now hit his straight on the turn and I have to catch up on the river. Nope, as the Jh falls.
Analysis: I should be calling this flop not 3-betting it. On a non-descript turn, I should bet again, and check any straight or flush card. In PLO/PLO8, people LOVE their FD. They will go all the way with it on the flop. However, these same people are much more hesitant to do so on the turn. So with opp2 called, I was pretty sure I was against a FD. I was wrong, but he's not calling with any straight draws other than the complete wrap he has there.
Conclusion: Another flop gamble. His call with a straight draw to a flush draw board is a mistake so I need to note that about this player.
---------------------------------------------------
Well, that took 3 complete days to write. It has given me plenty of insight into the mistakes I made last Thursday. The biggest one is my desired to gamble the flop. I can play this game very well using pot control. I don't need to leave things up to chance as I did in many of the hands that played out that night.
As an aside, I'm not posting any of these hands on the 2+2 forums. Most of the people there advocate the "get it in on the flop" strategy I was using when I was on tilt. I'm just tired of the same feedback from the guys who play at the .10/.25 levels. I haven't gotten any useful feedback to any of the questions or hands I've posted. It's too bad, some people say they've gotten great feedback. I just have not....
Hand #1 400PLO8:
I've got AhQsJh7h in the SB/BTN playing HU against S2D (VPIP=40, PFR/25). I raise to $12 PF, and he calls. Flop is 7c Tc Kh. I've got a pair plus a wrap. Odds are my opponent missed that flop (unless he's got a flush draw), so I'm likely ahead, but want to win this here. I bet $20 and get check-raised pot ($84). This bet is screaming FD to me, so I call $64 (pot is $192 and opponent has $115 behind). I'm either ahead or have draws to be ahead. The turn is the Qh, giving me the nut straight and the heart nut flush draw (NFD). My opponent moves all-in, to which I gladly call. He spikes his club on the river.
Flop: http://twodimes.net/h/?z=7508940
Turn http://twodimes.net/h/?z=7508939
Analysis: Almost everything here, except the call of the check/raise, is standard. My starting hand is a poor raising hand full table, but a good raising hand HU. The cbet on the flop is right in that most opponents are playing low draws and it has plenty of fold equity. Now, should I have called the check-raise? I have 3 options: fold, call, or push him all-in. I've only got a straight draw+ at this point, and am a definite dog to a FD+ at this point (which happens to be his actual hand with Kc9c5d4d), but a favorite to a simple FD (change Kc to Ac or Qc). I'm a dog to a set, though I'm getting the right price ((64+115)/(64+115+115+128)). Apparently, this is a borderline push. Given the amount he has left after the check/raise, I'm thinking now that I've got 0 fold equity in this spot. So, I think I've got a 0EV situation on the all-in push. As for the call, I've got position, which will help me assuming he doesn't shove every turn. Even then, I've got 11 cards (non-club A, Q, J, 9 and 7) which give me a solid hand against his range. In reality, I think I'm only folding the 9 clubs and 6 K's or T's left in the deck, since I already believe that I'm ahead or close to it at this point.
Conclusion: Nothing wrong with the way it was played, I'd do it again.
Hand #2 400PLO8:
I've got Kd5d2s2h in the SB/BTN HU against S2D. I raise to $12 PF, and he calls. I flop the nut flush on a AdQd8d board. He checks, I bet $18 and he calls (pot now $56). The tells me he has a flush as well with some low cards. He's trying to scoop when he hits his low. The turn is the 3h. This is a good turn for me, since it may have counterfitted his low. I now have nut/second-nut. He checks, I bet out $36 and he calls (pot now $128). The river is the 9d. A blank for all intents and purposes. He all of a sudden leads out for $128, I have nut/second-nut so I push my remaining $278 to the middle, and he calls. Oh, wait, I don't have nut/second-nut, I have second-nut/second-nut. The MF'er just rivered a straight flush to escape with half the pot. I was so far ahead on the turn.
Conclusion: As played, I think I got the most money in the pot as I could. However, that hand pissed me off, and kind of stuck to me. It started my negative thought spiral.
Hand #3 400PLO8:
In the SB/BTN against S2D. I limp with 8dTc4h3d. S2D raises from the BB to $12 and I call. He's telling me he has an A with some other good cards. The flop comes Js9dQd. I've got second-nut straight with a weak FD. He checks and I bet pot ($24) and he calls. I'm not liking that call. He's got something that works with that flop. I'm either beat or he's drawing better than me. The turn is a Kh. He checks, and I check as well. The card makes a bunch of hands that he can have now beat me (AT, KT, QT, JT, T9), and I don't think I'm ahead enough times to bet. The river is a Qh. If I wasn't beat on the turn, I'm pretty sure I'm beat now. It's possible he had a naked FD on the flop, but I doubt that. He checks, which actually tells me that he didn't boat up, but I check behind him and he tables Ad4c6hTh. Turned a 3 outer straight.
Conclusion: This guy is nuts. The only thing that makes sense is that he's drawing to a 3 outer + naked Ace bluff. Sucks that I had to lose this hand on the 3 outer though. This hand continues my anger spiral even if I only lost $36...
Hand #4 400PLO8:
5 handed with UG1 (VPIP=14,PFR=4), TWP (VPIP=33,PFR=15), RD (VPIP=25, PFR=7), and OMGD (VPIP=36, PFR=27). UG1 is uber tight, and very predictable. I like playing against him. RD is not as tight, but still predictable enough that I don't mind him at the table. TWP is a tough hombre. I lost $800 HU to him one night, but figured out how he plays me, and which hands he wants to push against me. As such, I got my money back in a few rings games against him a few days later when I caught him in bad spots. Since then, he's been playing tighter against me, so it seems he is respecting my play and when he bets into me, he means business. OMGD is new. I only have 250 hands against him, but he seems to be too loose and can be caught in bad situations. I want to play against him and try to flop a huge hand.
I'm on the BTN with Ks6sQdJc. It folds (TWP, RD) to me, so I pop it to $14. OMGD in the SB re-pops it to $46, and UG1 folds. He's loose enough that I call. Actually, this is a mistake, and one of the biggest problems I have. Clearly I can find a better spot to put my money in against this guy. I need to be more judicious when calling 3-bets, and this hand only has 1-way value with no low. It's a piss poor candidate for calling a 3-bet with.
The flop comes Kc3s6d. Ok, not so bad for my holding. I'm likely ahead for high. Against random AA hands, A2 hands, I'm even money. I'm a slight dog against AK2*, and probably the worst against A45*. So when he bets the pot ($96) on the flop, which is consistent with an AA** play, I see an opportunity to take his stack so I jump on it and re-pop it to $311, which is what he has left. He tables As3d9dKh for flopped top-bottom 2-pair and backdoor low, which is behind my hand. He turns his 9h, and I blank on the river (2h).
Conclusion: I got myself into this mess, by calling a 3-bet with too weak a hand PF. I should control that more, even against super aggro players. I don't think my flop play is bad. It's a fold or push play, and I'm getting 311/717 which is good enough odds (even assuming 0 fold equity) for most of my opponents range except A45*.
Hand #5 400PLO8:
In the BB HU against S2D with AhKh7s3s. We both have about $400. He min-raises to $8, and I re-pop it to $24 and he calls. I don't like 3-betting OOP from the blinds very often, as it gives away the strength of my hand. But given the way S2D has been playing, he's calling my bet with significantly weaker hands often enough to compensate for the fact I've announce how strong my hand is. The flop comes Qs8s7d. I've got a strong hand HU: pair + weak FD + 2nd nut low draw. I have to bet out here, especially since I'm either going to be called or re-raised. No point in check-raising, if I can get all his chips in the middle by betting first. I make a pot sized bet ($48) and he gladly re-pops it to $192. I move in for $388 and he calls showing Qh7h3c4d. I'm a 3:2 favorite at this point. The turn is the 9s and river is the 2d and I scoop the pot.
Conclusion: Good hand, played well, good result. So few of those during that session.
Hand #6 400PLO8
7-handed (SB= opp1, BB=GURC, RD, opp2, me, opp3, UG1), holding Ah6hTc9d with $143 behind. This is the same table as hand #4, but about an hour later. RD limps, opp2 folds, I call, opp3 calls, UG1 folds, SB completes and GURC checks. Flop comes Ts 3d 5h, Everyone checks, to opp3 who makes it $20. Everyone else folds, but I decide to re-pop it on a check raise, to $80, opp3 gladly makes it $140 for the rest of my chips. I call, and find out I'm actually ahead of Kd7d4h2s. However, the turn is a Jc and the river is a 6s, completing their up and down straight draw.
Analysis: What was I thinking on the check-raise? I'm not sure... I didn't check with the intention of raising. I checked because I had no idea where anyone was at that point in time and my hand was so-so. But once opp3 bet and everyone else folded, my hand got stronger. However, in retrospect, it still wasn't strong enough to warrant a check-raise. I have TPTK, and 4th best low draw, and any card that improves my low draw, makes a straight possible on the board. I'm putting up $80 to win $40 if opp3 folds or $140 to win $160 if they call/raise. The opponent is unknown, so I should have assumed that they had something. Their actual hand was at the worst part of their possible range, and since they re-raised with it, I now know I had zero fold equity. Against stronger hands, like 246X and sets I'm not getting the right price.
Conclusion: This was a bad play. I gambled on the flop rather than try to think through the situation. Even though this exact situation was +EV when the money was in, for all possible situations taken together, this was a -EV play.
Hand #7 400PLO8:
HU against S2D. I have $750 and he has $400. I'm in the BTN/SB with Tc4d7c5c and I raise to $12 and he calls. The flop comes 5s6d5h. He checks, and I bet pot ($24). This is standard, because, I likely have the best hand here, and want to take the pot down before a low on the turn hits chopping the pot. However, he check-raises me to $96. This is where I make a mistake. I did not stop and think. He's saying he has a 5. His 5 has to be better than mine. I mean, I'm playing T5 right now, so A5, K5, Q5, J5, and 65 all beat me (as does 66). Instead, I ignore the fact that I could just call and play the turn accordingly, I re-pop it to $312, knowing his c/r means he's ready to go to war with his hand. He puts the rest of his chips in and shows Qh6hQd5d for a full house. I'm still +EV at this point, though barely. The cards run Jd Td, and I river a better full house.
Conclusion: This hand should show that I'm not thinking straight this session. I'm lucky to have the better low draw at this point, but in reality, I could have been up against A5[baby]X and been in serious trouble. I need to realize that when I'm more willing to gamble on the flop, it's because it's the easier option than outplaying my opponents. In that case, I should be quitting the game. S2D has shown that he's willing to get in with weak hands, so means that there are going to be plenty of opportunities for me to get his stack and I don't need to jump on any of the marginal opportunities.
Hand #8 400PLO8
4 handed. SB=FN (VPIP=30, PFR=17), BB=opp1, S2D, BTN=me. Folds to me with As5s5cAd. Easy raise to $14. SB min raises to $28. I opt to call, as 4-betting makes it obvious I have AA. Pot is now $60, and FN has $370 behind and I have $825 . Flop comes 6h7d9c. This flop should not have hit my opponent (hands with T8 or 86 are not 3-betting hands typically). A 3-bet from the SB usually means A23, or AAbaby, which is also what I have, so I'm thinking I'm tied or ahead of A23. FN bets $38, and I think I'm ahead, so I push to $174, and then he moves in. Oops. WTF?! I have to call as I'm getting 3:1 on my money at this point. I do, and he flips Ah7h4c7c. I'm WAY behind. I need an A or an 8 for high, and a 4 for low. The board runs Qc Jc, and I lose $400 on the hand.
Analysis: This one is tough for me. I'm a slight dog to AAxx, but in good shape against A23*. I just did not see him waking up with a made hand there. Did I also have to lose $400 in this hand? If my read is right, then I'm +EV. I guess what I learned from this hand is that my 3-bet range for FN is incorrect. It is much wider, and should include a variety of double suited A-baby combinations. If I take that into account, I think the prudent play there would have been to merely call the flop as that is no longer a safe flop for my hand and I still have position. I probably call the turn as well in this case, though can now fold many rivers. In that scenario, I save chips. Now if my opponent has A23x, then he likely checks the turn, and I bet, so I miss out on some equity there if he folds. If he's got AAxx, then I don't think I lose anything as he bets the turn, though I guess I fold that river, so I save some chips there.
Conclusion: Updated FN 3-betting range, and play accordingly. Also, this is another hand where I pushed/gambled the flop rather than played poker.
Hand #9 400PLO8
Same table as above 4 hands later, I'm on the BTN again. Folds to me, I make it $14 with QcJcJh8s. FN in the SB calls. and opp1 folds. $32 in the pot, I have $441 and FN has $785. Flop comes Qd9c7c. FN checks, and I bet the pot. He re-pops it to $128. I make it $416, and he puts the rest of my chips in. He turns over Qs4c3c7s. The river runs 4h 3d, and he scoops the $912 pot. I was actually a favorite when the chips when in.
Analysis: None to be made. I was not playing smart poker here. I wanted to get my chips back from the previous hand, and found myself a flop to do just that. I have top-pair + FD + gut shot straight draw. In reality, we are too deep for me to be calling the check-raise here, but I wasn't thinking about his hand at all. All I saw were my cards and the potential for a huge pot.
Conclusion: If I wasn't on tilt before, losing $900 in the span of 5 minutes has definitely brought me there now.
Hand #10 400PLO8:
Same table as above, I've re-bought and am back up to $536 UTG. I raise with Ks5cJs6c (yes, I'm on tilt, not a good raise). Everyone calls. Pot is $56. Flop comes 5s6s5d. Checked to me, so I bet pot with the underfull. FN folds, opp1 calls, and S2D check-raises to $280, I'm on tilt so I gladly push the rest of my stack in. opp1 folds and S2D calls with Ad4d5hQs. I just need to fade an A or a Q. Even still, I'm a dog because he has the low draw with his hand. I don't get unlucky as the cards run 8h and 3d.
Conclusion: I profit $30 on a hand I should never have been playing in the first place.
Hand #11 200PLO8:
I've opened up a 200PLO8 table to try and reverse my luck. 7 handed, except S2D is also at my table. S2D opens to $7m and I call from the BTN with As5h8cQh. Not actually a bad play. The blinds get out of the way. The flop comes 7d Js Th. He checks, which I believe to mean that he has a good low hand that missed with only 7 low card on the flop. However, I only have a double belly-buster (9 or K for straight), so I check behind. Turn brings the Jh. He bets out $12.50 to a $17 pot. I suspect he is buying the pot (I'm on tilt, so my reads aren't too good). I raise him to $54.50, at which point he calls. When he does this, I have to read that he's either got AA or AhXh. The river comes Td. He checks, I bet out for $96 to a $128 pot. After a long time, he calls. Unfortunately, he hit trips on the river, as he was holding AhAd2cTc.
Analysis: Is that a bad river bet? He knows I'm out of control, so he's going to be calling me light, and it wouldn't be the first time that he's called me with AA to a paired board. The fact that he hit his T was a bonus for him.
Conclusion: If I can face S2D again, I need to remember how light he is going to call my rivers, and milk them for all their worth. As for this hand, it's becoming pretty clear to me why I lost so much money that night.
Hand #12: 400PLO8
4 handed. SB=opp1, BB=S2D ($607), NE14D, me ($670). Folds to me on the BTN, and I make it Ah5h3s6c. S2D re-pops it to $44 and I call. Given the way we've been playing each other for the last 2.5 hours, I have to call, as my hand has good value, though I still have to be careful. Flop comes 2s 4h Jc. A pretty decent flop. I've got nut low draw, and a pair. If I'm against AA2 or A2PP (where PP is a pair), I'm drawing to low. If I'm up against A23X (X not a J), then I'm ahead and looking to quarter my opponent. Given this, and I'm on tilt, I looking to be pushing this flop. He checks, I bet, he check/raises (again!) and I push the rest in. He tables As2c3dTc. Turn is 2h and river is 7c and I'm the one who is quartered.
Analysis: Even though I'm far ahead in this hand, but get unlucky, I shouldn't be moving in on the flop. I should be calling and evaluating the turn. His check/raise means he's willing to go all the way with the hand, so why not take a second to protect yourself against some bad cards on the turn. Also, I'm still behind AA2X, so I should be protecting myself in case that's what I'm up against.
Conclusion: Another hand where I rush to gamble the flop, when in this spot, I could have saved $100 by calling the flop and folding to that 2. I don't see him betting the turn if it comes K or Q unless he has AA2 in this spot, rather than A23, so he'd be telling me if I'm ahead or behind. Any low card and he's committing his chips regardless.
Hand #13 200PLO8
4 handed. SB=me ($255), opp1 ($261), UG1, NE14D. Folds to me, I call with Kc6c9d2d, and opp1 raises to $8 and I call. I should have folded here. This is not a good hand to go against an Ababy hand. Flop comes Kd 2s Qh. I check to check/raise (not a good idea with my hand, but I'm not thinking right), and he bets $12, I raise to $48 and he calls. The turn is the 4d. I have a FD with my 2 pair. I think I'm now solid, so I bet out, and he moves in and I call. He tables Ad Kh 4h 4c, and I'm in trouble. I wasn't even a favorite on the flop, which is the perils of playing top/bottom two pair in this game. However, him turning his set sucked royally! I'm I'm really far behind.
Conclusion: When I'm on tilt, double suited hands look very pretty and playable, when in fact they are simply a money drain unless they had some other merits!
Hand #14 400PLO8
3 handed. SB=opp1, BB=TWP, me ($300). I raise with KsTs9sQd, which is fair 3 handed. SB calls, and TWP re-pops it to $56. My hand plays well against TWP's 3-betting range here. I can double up with the right flop, so $56 to implied $600 is worth it. I call and SB calls. Flop comes KhJdJs. opp1 checks, TWP bets $116 to the $168 pot. I'm trying to break him, so I re-pop to $243 (all-in). He c-bets a lot, so he may very well fold. Unfortunately, opp1 calls in the SB, which means he has a J, which causes TWP to fold. I'm behind to Ad3dJc6h, turn is 4s, giving me hope, and the river is the 3s absolutely breaking my heart because I see winning flush before I realize it's losing flush to full house.
Conclusion: Given my stack size, and no knowledge about opp1, this hand was played correctly to extract maximum from TWP. opp1 just had the right hand at the right time.
Hand #15 400PLO8
5 handed. SB=me ($323), BB=opp1, TWP, opp2, opp3. Fold, call, call, I complete with QsQc4h3h, and BB checks. Flop is Qd Tc 4d. I bet $12 into the $16 pot. BB raises to $24, opp2 calls, opp3 folds, so I decide to protect my set here, and make it $112 to continue. BB folds, but opp2 calls. I put him on a FD. The turn is the 8s. I put the rest of my chips in the middle, only to see that I walked into a massive wrap on the flop: AhJsKs9c. We were even money on the flop, but he now hit his straight on the turn and I have to catch up on the river. Nope, as the Jh falls.
Analysis: I should be calling this flop not 3-betting it. On a non-descript turn, I should bet again, and check any straight or flush card. In PLO/PLO8, people LOVE their FD. They will go all the way with it on the flop. However, these same people are much more hesitant to do so on the turn. So with opp2 called, I was pretty sure I was against a FD. I was wrong, but he's not calling with any straight draws other than the complete wrap he has there.
Conclusion: Another flop gamble. His call with a straight draw to a flush draw board is a mistake so I need to note that about this player.
---------------------------------------------------
Well, that took 3 complete days to write. It has given me plenty of insight into the mistakes I made last Thursday. The biggest one is my desired to gamble the flop. I can play this game very well using pot control. I don't need to leave things up to chance as I did in many of the hands that played out that night.
As an aside, I'm not posting any of these hands on the 2+2 forums. Most of the people there advocate the "get it in on the flop" strategy I was using when I was on tilt. I'm just tired of the same feedback from the guys who play at the .10/.25 levels. I haven't gotten any useful feedback to any of the questions or hands I've posted. It's too bad, some people say they've gotten great feedback. I just have not....
Saturday, August 28, 2010
Running cold
The laws of averages have started to catch up with me. I had a session last Thursday where, in the span of 2 hands, I lost 800 in between expected and actual. As you can see, after that, my play deteriorated and even my "Net expected Won" graph is showing a downward trend.
Ladies and gentlemen, I WENT ON TILT. I lost control. I was so pissed that on one hand I lost on another shitty river, I screamed FUCK so loud from my basement, my wife heard it on the second floor as she was falling asleep. Needless to say, she wasn't too pleased about that.
I was out about $4000 at one point (the graphs show only all-in EV) and brought it back to a $2000 loss for the night. It was bound to happen. I had gotten unstuck so many times before, that I was tempting fate doing it over and over again.
I've got another graph for you:
My super aggro game isn't working too well at the higher level likely because of the other super aggro players there too. I'm super aggro PF, but I tend to tighten up after and may be folding too many good situations post-flop. I'll have to revisit my 400PLO8 strategy. There are some fish there, but I should study all the opponents and figure out which ones are targeting me and adjust my play to counteract theirs.
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
UBOC summary
8 qualifiers: 4 entries + $215 TD - 28840UPs -$44
4 events: 1 cash ($550)+ 5 bounties (5*$20)
If we convert UPs to $, for the sake of reference, then we have
$550+$100+$215-$44-$285 = $536
I'll take it. On an hourly rate, it's not that great, but tourneys are not about hourly rate. They are about the one big score. It's nice if you can stay profitable until the big one comes.
Having that deep run in event #4 tells me I can get that big one, but it also shows me that it won't be easy and I've got some areas to improve.
Looking forward to hitting the felt again soon :)
4 events: 1 cash ($550)+ 5 bounties (5*$20)
If we convert UPs to $, for the sake of reference, then we have
$550+$100+$215-$44-$285 = $536
I'll take it. On an hourly rate, it's not that great, but tourneys are not about hourly rate. They are about the one big score. It's nice if you can stay profitable until the big one comes.
Having that deep run in event #4 tells me I can get that big one, but it also shows me that it won't be easy and I've got some areas to improve.
Looking forward to hitting the felt again soon :)
UBOC event #10 and #12
Event #10: $300+20 PLO8 100k guaranteed, 3k starting stack.
Not so good. I finished 147/294. I played pretty poorly.
Ok, I didn't play that poorly early. I got lucky one hand and doubled through my opponent to get to 7.5k. I worked it up to almost 10k, then I got sticky fingers. I couldn't let go of second best hands. It shouldn't be too hard to let got of a decent hand when you are 3-bet PF in these tournaments. Most of these players will not 3-bet light. However, I was still in my 400PLO8 cash game mentality, where a 3-bet PF is a lot wider and I was calling their raises with mediocre hands. As is with PLO8, the flop invariably gives you some sort of a draw, and usually after the opponent has 3-bet PF, you are getting the right odds to call his all-in on the flop. So I found myself in 2 such hands within the same orbit and my 10k stack was drubbed back down to 3k. From there, I just tried to find a good spot to get my chips in, but ended up second best again.
Event #12 $200+15 HORSE 50k guaranteed, 3k starting stack.
I finished 68/227.
I played very well for the first 2 1/2 hours. I was folding tough hands, knowing that I was going to find spots later which would be more advantageous. For as little as I play these games, I think I'm a pretty good stud player. I used to play the occasional .10/.25 Stud8 game on UB, back when I was grinding 50PLO8, so it's not like I have no experience. The irony is that I lost most of my cash in the LO8 portion of the game.
I worked my stack up to 11k at one point, and was the chip leader, but that's quite deceiving. There were still 200 players left after 2 hours (avg stack 3405) but the level was 300/600 LHE. It wasn't taking a lot of bets for players to end up all in. Therefore, 11k wasn't going to do me much good if I sat on it. I had to stay in there and keep playing. The hand that crippled me the most was at 400/800 LO8, late in the 3rd hour of play. I had A39K run into A346 to a 45927 board to get quartered severely.
Another hand that sucked was: I raise first in from the CO with AAA2 and get called in 2 places. Flop comes 764, check, check, I bet, call call. The turn is the fucking 2. I mean seriously? I'm pretty fucking sure that the last A is out, so that's a 3 outer to counterfit. There goes 1200 chips as I have to fold to the bet.
After that, I had few chips, so I waited for the razz game to try and pick some hands that I was going to play for my stack. Since PT3 doesn't track the stud game hands, I don't remember, but I believe I had a 9 low get beat by an 8 low.
I might start looking for more of those tourneys online as they were fun. They forced me to concentrate and not go on auto-pilot, and I really like the way I play when I'm truly focused. However, it took 3.5 hours to get down to 68, and although eliminations were coming fast, I'm sure it was another 1.5 hours to the money. That's a pretty long time. ROI not looking so good there.
That's the end of UBOC for me. None of the other events interest me. I'd like to play in the main event (#20) but it's at 4PM on a Sunday, and I can't do that to the family. Poker, for the most part, is on my own time.
I'll publish a UBOC summary in my next post
Not so good. I finished 147/294. I played pretty poorly.
Ok, I didn't play that poorly early. I got lucky one hand and doubled through my opponent to get to 7.5k. I worked it up to almost 10k, then I got sticky fingers. I couldn't let go of second best hands. It shouldn't be too hard to let got of a decent hand when you are 3-bet PF in these tournaments. Most of these players will not 3-bet light. However, I was still in my 400PLO8 cash game mentality, where a 3-bet PF is a lot wider and I was calling their raises with mediocre hands. As is with PLO8, the flop invariably gives you some sort of a draw, and usually after the opponent has 3-bet PF, you are getting the right odds to call his all-in on the flop. So I found myself in 2 such hands within the same orbit and my 10k stack was drubbed back down to 3k. From there, I just tried to find a good spot to get my chips in, but ended up second best again.
Event #12 $200+15 HORSE 50k guaranteed, 3k starting stack.
I finished 68/227.
I played very well for the first 2 1/2 hours. I was folding tough hands, knowing that I was going to find spots later which would be more advantageous. For as little as I play these games, I think I'm a pretty good stud player. I used to play the occasional .10/.25 Stud8 game on UB, back when I was grinding 50PLO8, so it's not like I have no experience. The irony is that I lost most of my cash in the LO8 portion of the game.
I worked my stack up to 11k at one point, and was the chip leader, but that's quite deceiving. There were still 200 players left after 2 hours (avg stack 3405) but the level was 300/600 LHE. It wasn't taking a lot of bets for players to end up all in. Therefore, 11k wasn't going to do me much good if I sat on it. I had to stay in there and keep playing. The hand that crippled me the most was at 400/800 LO8, late in the 3rd hour of play. I had A39K run into A346 to a 45927 board to get quartered severely.
Another hand that sucked was: I raise first in from the CO with AAA2 and get called in 2 places. Flop comes 764, check, check, I bet, call call. The turn is the fucking 2. I mean seriously? I'm pretty fucking sure that the last A is out, so that's a 3 outer to counterfit. There goes 1200 chips as I have to fold to the bet.
After that, I had few chips, so I waited for the razz game to try and pick some hands that I was going to play for my stack. Since PT3 doesn't track the stud game hands, I don't remember, but I believe I had a 9 low get beat by an 8 low.
I might start looking for more of those tourneys online as they were fun. They forced me to concentrate and not go on auto-pilot, and I really like the way I play when I'm truly focused. However, it took 3.5 hours to get down to 68, and although eliminations were coming fast, I'm sure it was another 1.5 hours to the money. That's a pretty long time. ROI not looking so good there.
That's the end of UBOC for me. None of the other events interest me. I'd like to play in the main event (#20) but it's at 4PM on a Sunday, and I can't do that to the family. Poker, for the most part, is on my own time.
I'll publish a UBOC summary in my next post
Saturday, August 21, 2010
UBOC5 event #4 - the hands
Patience and poise.
This is a phrase I repeated over and over and over again to myself as I played. In event #1, I played too many pots for too much money. I have noticed that a lot of the raises were less than 3x BB, with some being between 2x and 2.5x BB. This seemed to be giving the aggressors much more slack in their post flop bet sizing to bet opponents off pots. I had been raising 3.5xBB, which is my standard PLO8 cash game PF raise. So, my goal was to be more patient (lower my VPIP from 35 to 20 ish) and show some control in the hands I played while learning from those around me. Also, not to rush into my decisions, and to give extra thought where possible.
Now for the (relatively) condensed version of my tournament showing my critical hands where I was putting myself at risk.
Things didn't look too good when I lost half my stack around the 40 minute mark of the tournament. I raised from late position with QQ, after 1 limper had entered the pot. The SB shoved 1306, limped folded and I called. SB had KT and spiked a K on the turn.
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2272691
After 30 more minutes of nothing, and watching my chip stack dwindle, I open shove 915 with 7c2h and get called by AhQd from the BB. OOPS! I get lucky and spike a 2 on the river (953K2)
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=7490918
I'm still only at half my original chip stack at this point, but I'm in a less precarious position compared to the blinds.
20 minutes later, blinds at 50/100, I have 1650 and I'm in the BB with 2d5c. This should have been an easy fold (*) to any raise, but it got interesting. MP raises 2xBB, and the cutoff (CO) and SB call. I'm now getting 7:1 on my call. As bad as my cards are, I have to call, so I do. The flop comes 3h 5d 2h. SWEET two pair! I check, hoping to check-raise the initial raiser. The SB checks, I check, MP bets, CO and SB fold and I successfully get to check-raise all-in. He calls me with AsQh and I double back up to slightly above starting stack.
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=7490923
(*) In my friendly NLHE cash games, 2x5x has become a favorite starting hand of mine. I've been winning quite a few pots with it. As such, it's gotten to the point where I play it like AA. Another funny thing is that, according to my stats, it was the hand (along with JT) that I was dealt the most times in this tournament.
15 minutes later, blinds at 75/150, and I have 2912. I'm UTG with TT. I decide a very odd play of open shoving here. It's a risky play, but the table is pretty passive so I'm likely getting called somewhere if I bet anywhere up to 3.5xBB and then I'm scared if any A, K, Q or J flops. Raising any more than 3.5xBB and I think I'm committed to put the rest in on the flop no matter what the flop, so I just open shove instead. I'm hoping that a weaker hand may call because they've seen me open shove with 72o already. So, it folds to the BB who calls with 99 and I am able to successfully double up.
Just after the 2nd break, 2 hours in, the blinds are still 75/150, and I have 6724 in chips. I have KcQh in MP, and I raise 3xBB (450). The button re-raises all-in for 3310. I'm getting 4:3 odds on my money. Horrible odds if he has AA, KK QQ, AK, AQ but good enough if he's got any other pair, AX and smaller. Then there's the possibility I'm actually ahead. Therefore I call. He has AhJh but I manage to flop a K and get my first bounty.
In the next 20 hands, I end up playing 4 pots. I check-raise bluff a flop and win $1200. I raise, and c-bet bluff the turn, but get called and lose $1400. I raise from the CO with 95o, and get called by the button. I flop 2 pair (T95) and I c-bet 1/2 pot and get called. Turn is another 5 and I bet again, this time 1/3 pot, but my opponent folds. This was likely a mistake. I probably had my opponent dead. I could have given him the chance to hit a card on the river to make big 2 pair or a straight and win a bigger pot. As is, I win $1650 in that pot. The exact next hand,
I raise 2xBB with Ac7c, and get re-raised from the SB. I think I'm folding, but I accidentally click call. Flop is 952, and he bets and I fold. Bye bye $2300 on a careless play.
For the next hour, it was pretty quiet. I'd win or lose a couple of hands, but in general I stayed about even. Then after the 3rd break, I get AA in MP, and raise 2.5xBB. I get called by BB and the player to my left. Flop comes Q73, so I bet 1/3 pot (1200), and the player to my left min raises to 2400. The BB folds. I'm either dead or way ahead in this spot, but I'm putting forward 8k if I shove to win either 7k if he folds, or 15k if he calls. So if I think I'm ahead more than 1/3 of the time, it's the right move. He does call with QT. and I win.
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=7492486
I'm now sitting pretty strong with 22k in chips. Over the next 20 minutes I drop about 3k to be at 19000, when at 250/500/50 (50 ante to go with 250/500 blinds), the CO open shoves for 6.1k. I have AdTh and I call. He has QdTd and I win. This is a spot where my opponent is likely to have a very large range and I will be ahead often. Not to mention the bounty incentive compensates a little. I don't re-raise because I only have to protect against the blinds, and if one of them comes over the top, I need to fold.
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=517427
I'm back up to 26k and at this point, it is time to be more aggressive. You can see that some stacks are trying to preserve their chips to make the money. As long as I don't cripple myself by abusing much larger stacks, I have the opportunity to chip up. At 400/800/100 I'm in the CO with 24k in chips. MP with 48k limps, then the player to his left (MP+1) makes it 3333. I'm in an interesting spot with KdQd. Do I raise, call or fold? An argument can be made any way. I decide to call given the pot odds , but will fold to a re-raise from MP. Interestingly enough, MP folds despite the odds. Therefore, I note that he is very tight. Now the flop comes AsJdQc. If he checks, he's likely got a small pair and I'm ahead. If he cbets, I think I'm folding since it's not worth being in this tough spot. Thankfully he checks. Turn is a Jc, and I'm feeling pretty good about the strength of my hand. He checks again, and I bet 1/3 pot, and he mucks. I'm not up to 31k.
It's now 4 hours in, and I believe we are in the money if not very close. The blinds are 500/1k/100. I'm in the SB with Qs9s. Fold to me and I call. The BB has 84k so I don't want to do anything stupid, especially with a hand I want to see a flop with. He checks his option. Flop comes Ac9c6d. At this point, I'm pretty sure I'm ahead. Any hand that beats me, except 96, I suspect he would have raised from the BB with. So I bet 1/2 pot (1400). He calls. Hmm... what does that mean? He hit a 9, a 6? Dunno... The turn is the Qd giving me 2 pair. I make a stronger bet 2/3 pot-ish (3200), and he raises to 7775. I shove the rest (20k) and he mucks. I'm wondering if there is a smaller bet size here I can make that will get him to try and get my chips in, but I'll take the 10k gain regardless. My only mistake was not taking a little longer to think about his hand at that point.
Now that I have chips >40k, and we are in the money. At this stage, you need to be careful of the small stacks that are trying to get big or go home, so they play a lot more looser and aggressive in this spot. Thankfully, I go card dead and only play 4 of the next 20 hands, winning 2 and losing 2 for small amounts <4k. Then, in MP I get 33, raise 3xBB and every one folds. Next hand, I have AcJc and raise 3xBB and everyone folds. I fold the next hand, then next hand UTG, I find AdJs, and raise 3xBB again. This time it folds to the big stack in the SW who makes it 80k! WTF! The bet size is too large to mean a big pair or AK. It is screaming small pair, Ax or big stack push, which is very likely given that I've raised 3 of the last 4 pots. I'm getting the right odds, when all taken together so I call, and he tables AcQh. Oops, bad spot. I get lucky and flop 7dKhJc, and he missed a Q or a T on the next two cards (2d Ks) and I get lucky to win a 91k pot.
Next hand, I have AdTd in the BB, and UTG+1, who has been active raising PF, makes it <2.5xBB to go. Everyone folds and I call. Flop comes 8dTc9c, and I check-raise him off the pot for another 8k. My stack is now 100k.
I continue to be active. Over the next 27 hands, I lose 27k going in and out of 12 of the pots. The biggest mistake I had was targeting a loose player, who seemed to be making all the right plays against me and I lost 14k against him.
I'm now at 73k, and the blinds are 1k/2k/200 when MP raises 2.25xBB and I call from the CO with KsQc, Button calls. The flop comes Qd9s5h, with the pot now 21k. MP checks, I bet 14.5k and button calls, and MP folds. I'm either behind to AQ, 99 or 55, or ahead of QJ or QT. My opponent has me covered, so I'm now basically playing for all my chips after that call. The turn is a 7j, so I bet 1/2 pot, which also happens to be 1/2 my stack, and he pushed me all in at which point I call. He tables QhJd and the river 8d gives me the pot. I'm now at 160k.
Over the next 30 hands, I'm playing quite a few pots, and still making mistakes against that loose aggro player. At 1.5k/3k/300, I find myself with KdTs UTG, and I raise 3xBB. It folds to my nemesis in the BB who 3-bets to 27.5k. Notice how he didn't overbet this time. He likes his hand, and thus it is pretty good. I'm getting over 2:1 to call, so I simply call in position to see what the flop brings. BINGO! AhKhKc. It he has Ax, x not being a K, I've got him. He bets 15k, and I push and he calls, and tables AsQs and I win a 185k pot.
After that, my stack becomes a bit of a yo-yo. Up and down, up and down. Then it starts to go only down. Still at 1.5k/3k/300, on the button with JcJh, loose-aggro raises 2xBB, the CO puts in almost 1/2 his stack at 30k, I decide to re-pop it to 76k, and the blinds fold and so does loose-aggro, and the CO goes all-in. He tables KK. D'oh. I did not read the re-raise correctly, This player was tight enough that his 3-bet should have meant something strong. I did not need to put in 76k in that spot. I miss and am down to 85k in chips.
10 hands later, 1.75k/3.5k/350 blinds, we're 6-handed and I'm UTG with 8c8d. I open for 10.5k and get pushed all-in by loose-aggro in the SB. Again, he has shown that with a hand as good as AsQs he will 3-bet smaller, so I'm thinking I'm ahead, and I call. I'm right, but his hand is still plenty good with AdQh. Flop comes 4cAhKh5c2s and I'm done.
When you look through these hands, I think I made some nice plays, had some places for improvement, and played some of them completely wrong. However, it is clear that I made some hands at some critical junctions which enabled me to survive and/or thrive. So I'm ecstatic with the results.
s
This is a phrase I repeated over and over and over again to myself as I played. In event #1, I played too many pots for too much money. I have noticed that a lot of the raises were less than 3x BB, with some being between 2x and 2.5x BB. This seemed to be giving the aggressors much more slack in their post flop bet sizing to bet opponents off pots. I had been raising 3.5xBB, which is my standard PLO8 cash game PF raise. So, my goal was to be more patient (lower my VPIP from 35 to 20 ish) and show some control in the hands I played while learning from those around me. Also, not to rush into my decisions, and to give extra thought where possible.
Now for the (relatively) condensed version of my tournament showing my critical hands where I was putting myself at risk.
Things didn't look too good when I lost half my stack around the 40 minute mark of the tournament. I raised from late position with QQ, after 1 limper had entered the pot. The SB shoved 1306, limped folded and I called. SB had KT and spiked a K on the turn.
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2272691
After 30 more minutes of nothing, and watching my chip stack dwindle, I open shove 915 with 7c2h and get called by AhQd from the BB. OOPS! I get lucky and spike a 2 on the river (953K2)
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=7490918
I'm still only at half my original chip stack at this point, but I'm in a less precarious position compared to the blinds.
20 minutes later, blinds at 50/100, I have 1650 and I'm in the BB with 2d5c. This should have been an easy fold (*) to any raise, but it got interesting. MP raises 2xBB, and the cutoff (CO) and SB call. I'm now getting 7:1 on my call. As bad as my cards are, I have to call, so I do. The flop comes 3h 5d 2h. SWEET two pair! I check, hoping to check-raise the initial raiser. The SB checks, I check, MP bets, CO and SB fold and I successfully get to check-raise all-in. He calls me with AsQh and I double back up to slightly above starting stack.
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=7490923
(*) In my friendly NLHE cash games, 2x5x has become a favorite starting hand of mine. I've been winning quite a few pots with it. As such, it's gotten to the point where I play it like AA. Another funny thing is that, according to my stats, it was the hand (along with JT) that I was dealt the most times in this tournament.
15 minutes later, blinds at 75/150, and I have 2912. I'm UTG with TT. I decide a very odd play of open shoving here. It's a risky play, but the table is pretty passive so I'm likely getting called somewhere if I bet anywhere up to 3.5xBB and then I'm scared if any A, K, Q or J flops. Raising any more than 3.5xBB and I think I'm committed to put the rest in on the flop no matter what the flop, so I just open shove instead. I'm hoping that a weaker hand may call because they've seen me open shove with 72o already. So, it folds to the BB who calls with 99 and I am able to successfully double up.
Just after the 2nd break, 2 hours in, the blinds are still 75/150, and I have 6724 in chips. I have KcQh in MP, and I raise 3xBB (450). The button re-raises all-in for 3310. I'm getting 4:3 odds on my money. Horrible odds if he has AA, KK QQ, AK, AQ but good enough if he's got any other pair, AX and smaller. Then there's the possibility I'm actually ahead. Therefore I call. He has AhJh but I manage to flop a K and get my first bounty.
In the next 20 hands, I end up playing 4 pots. I check-raise bluff a flop and win $1200. I raise, and c-bet bluff the turn, but get called and lose $1400. I raise from the CO with 95o, and get called by the button. I flop 2 pair (T95) and I c-bet 1/2 pot and get called. Turn is another 5 and I bet again, this time 1/3 pot, but my opponent folds. This was likely a mistake. I probably had my opponent dead. I could have given him the chance to hit a card on the river to make big 2 pair or a straight and win a bigger pot. As is, I win $1650 in that pot. The exact next hand,
I raise 2xBB with Ac7c, and get re-raised from the SB. I think I'm folding, but I accidentally click call. Flop is 952, and he bets and I fold. Bye bye $2300 on a careless play.
For the next hour, it was pretty quiet. I'd win or lose a couple of hands, but in general I stayed about even. Then after the 3rd break, I get AA in MP, and raise 2.5xBB. I get called by BB and the player to my left. Flop comes Q73, so I bet 1/3 pot (1200), and the player to my left min raises to 2400. The BB folds. I'm either dead or way ahead in this spot, but I'm putting forward 8k if I shove to win either 7k if he folds, or 15k if he calls. So if I think I'm ahead more than 1/3 of the time, it's the right move. He does call with QT. and I win.
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=7492486
I'm now sitting pretty strong with 22k in chips. Over the next 20 minutes I drop about 3k to be at 19000, when at 250/500/50 (50 ante to go with 250/500 blinds), the CO open shoves for 6.1k. I have AdTh and I call. He has QdTd and I win. This is a spot where my opponent is likely to have a very large range and I will be ahead often. Not to mention the bounty incentive compensates a little. I don't re-raise because I only have to protect against the blinds, and if one of them comes over the top, I need to fold.
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=517427
I'm back up to 26k and at this point, it is time to be more aggressive. You can see that some stacks are trying to preserve their chips to make the money. As long as I don't cripple myself by abusing much larger stacks, I have the opportunity to chip up. At 400/800/100 I'm in the CO with 24k in chips. MP with 48k limps, then the player to his left (MP+1) makes it 3333. I'm in an interesting spot with KdQd. Do I raise, call or fold? An argument can be made any way. I decide to call given the pot odds , but will fold to a re-raise from MP. Interestingly enough, MP folds despite the odds. Therefore, I note that he is very tight. Now the flop comes AsJdQc. If he checks, he's likely got a small pair and I'm ahead. If he cbets, I think I'm folding since it's not worth being in this tough spot. Thankfully he checks. Turn is a Jc, and I'm feeling pretty good about the strength of my hand. He checks again, and I bet 1/3 pot, and he mucks. I'm not up to 31k.
It's now 4 hours in, and I believe we are in the money if not very close. The blinds are 500/1k/100. I'm in the SB with Qs9s. Fold to me and I call. The BB has 84k so I don't want to do anything stupid, especially with a hand I want to see a flop with. He checks his option. Flop comes Ac9c6d. At this point, I'm pretty sure I'm ahead. Any hand that beats me, except 96, I suspect he would have raised from the BB with. So I bet 1/2 pot (1400). He calls. Hmm... what does that mean? He hit a 9, a 6? Dunno... The turn is the Qd giving me 2 pair. I make a stronger bet 2/3 pot-ish (3200), and he raises to 7775. I shove the rest (20k) and he mucks. I'm wondering if there is a smaller bet size here I can make that will get him to try and get my chips in, but I'll take the 10k gain regardless. My only mistake was not taking a little longer to think about his hand at that point.
Now that I have chips >40k, and we are in the money. At this stage, you need to be careful of the small stacks that are trying to get big or go home, so they play a lot more looser and aggressive in this spot. Thankfully, I go card dead and only play 4 of the next 20 hands, winning 2 and losing 2 for small amounts <4k. Then, in MP I get 33, raise 3xBB and every one folds. Next hand, I have AcJc and raise 3xBB and everyone folds. I fold the next hand, then next hand UTG, I find AdJs, and raise 3xBB again. This time it folds to the big stack in the SW who makes it 80k! WTF! The bet size is too large to mean a big pair or AK. It is screaming small pair, Ax or big stack push, which is very likely given that I've raised 3 of the last 4 pots. I'm getting the right odds, when all taken together so I call, and he tables AcQh. Oops, bad spot. I get lucky and flop 7dKhJc, and he missed a Q or a T on the next two cards (2d Ks) and I get lucky to win a 91k pot.
Next hand, I have AdTd in the BB, and UTG+1, who has been active raising PF, makes it <2.5xBB to go. Everyone folds and I call. Flop comes 8dTc9c, and I check-raise him off the pot for another 8k. My stack is now 100k.
I continue to be active. Over the next 27 hands, I lose 27k going in and out of 12 of the pots. The biggest mistake I had was targeting a loose player, who seemed to be making all the right plays against me and I lost 14k against him.
I'm now at 73k, and the blinds are 1k/2k/200 when MP raises 2.25xBB and I call from the CO with KsQc, Button calls. The flop comes Qd9s5h, with the pot now 21k. MP checks, I bet 14.5k and button calls, and MP folds. I'm either behind to AQ, 99 or 55, or ahead of QJ or QT. My opponent has me covered, so I'm now basically playing for all my chips after that call. The turn is a 7j, so I bet 1/2 pot, which also happens to be 1/2 my stack, and he pushed me all in at which point I call. He tables QhJd and the river 8d gives me the pot. I'm now at 160k.
Over the next 30 hands, I'm playing quite a few pots, and still making mistakes against that loose aggro player. At 1.5k/3k/300, I find myself with KdTs UTG, and I raise 3xBB. It folds to my nemesis in the BB who 3-bets to 27.5k. Notice how he didn't overbet this time. He likes his hand, and thus it is pretty good. I'm getting over 2:1 to call, so I simply call in position to see what the flop brings. BINGO! AhKhKc. It he has Ax, x not being a K, I've got him. He bets 15k, and I push and he calls, and tables AsQs and I win a 185k pot.
After that, my stack becomes a bit of a yo-yo. Up and down, up and down. Then it starts to go only down. Still at 1.5k/3k/300, on the button with JcJh, loose-aggro raises 2xBB, the CO puts in almost 1/2 his stack at 30k, I decide to re-pop it to 76k, and the blinds fold and so does loose-aggro, and the CO goes all-in. He tables KK. D'oh. I did not read the re-raise correctly, This player was tight enough that his 3-bet should have meant something strong. I did not need to put in 76k in that spot. I miss and am down to 85k in chips.
10 hands later, 1.75k/3.5k/350 blinds, we're 6-handed and I'm UTG with 8c8d. I open for 10.5k and get pushed all-in by loose-aggro in the SB. Again, he has shown that with a hand as good as AsQs he will 3-bet smaller, so I'm thinking I'm ahead, and I call. I'm right, but his hand is still plenty good with AdQh. Flop comes 4cAhKh5c2s and I'm done.
When you look through these hands, I think I made some nice plays, had some places for improvement, and played some of them completely wrong. However, it is clear that I made some hands at some critical junctions which enabled me to survive and/or thrive. So I'm ecstatic with the results.
s
Friday, August 20, 2010
UBOC5 event #4 results
A lot better: 19th out of 732. Cashed for $550, and got an extra $100 in bounties.
Since I just got knocked out and it's 1:50AM, I discuss more later. I plan on walking through my all-in moments. I think I captured them all, and it should give you a little insight as to how I was running.
Hopefully, I'll get them posted tomorrow afternoon.
Since I just got knocked out and it's 1:50AM, I discuss more later. I plan on walking through my all-in moments. I think I captured them all, and it should give you a little insight as to how I was running.
Hopefully, I'll get them posted tomorrow afternoon.
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
UBOC event #1 results
740/903 Pfft.
Thoughts:
1) I over play hands. I need to be willing to check fold flops after raising pre-flop.
2) I need to not bluff too early in these tournaments.
I raised from middle position with AhKd, the cut-off calls. Board went Jd 3c 5h, 3h, 9h. I fired ever step of the way and was called down by JhTh. I don't know if he calls that river if his T is not exactly the Th. That mistake took me from 3k in chips to 1k.
Then, with 941 left, blinds at 30/60, UTG raised to 122, and I moved in from late position with TcTd, he calls with AcQd. He hits his Q on the flop, and I'm out of the tourney.
Let's see if I can take these lessons and apply them on Friday in UBOC event #4 for a better showing.
Thoughts:
1) I over play hands. I need to be willing to check fold flops after raising pre-flop.
2) I need to not bluff too early in these tournaments.
I raised from middle position with AhKd, the cut-off calls. Board went Jd 3c 5h, 3h, 9h. I fired ever step of the way and was called down by JhTh. I don't know if he calls that river if his T is not exactly the Th. That mistake took me from 3k in chips to 1k.
Then, with 941 left, blinds at 30/60, UTG raised to 122, and I moved in from late position with TcTd, he calls with AcQd. He hits his Q on the flop, and I'm out of the tourney.
Let's see if I can take these lessons and apply them on Friday in UBOC event #4 for a better showing.
Sunday, August 15, 2010
EV graphs
As promised, here are my cumulative EV graphs for the past few months, as well as the one from the session a few nights ago
As you can see, I'm running a tad (2.5-3x ish) better than expectation, but the expectation is trending upwards as well so I'm doing things right. Some might say that I should be expecting variation to catch up with me soon. I say it actually is, in that this rush is the variation compensation for the awful 2009.
And here is the EV graph of the last session. In the first 200 hands, I should have been down, $200, but not $1200, yet there I was, with that low of ($2100). What I need to channel is the focus I have when I'm there. Seriously, if I could just start a session at that point, and play the next 700 hands, it would be a $2k win night.
But let's be realistic. Once I'm up $1k on the night, I'll be thinking about locking that in, which means I won't be playing my best poker. I'll be tentative on the big pots, and should I get a cooler here or there and lose a big pot, I may lose focus rather than gain it, since I'll be disappointed I didn't walk away when I was good.
Just another thing I need to work on.
As you can see, I'm running a tad (2.5-3x ish) better than expectation, but the expectation is trending upwards as well so I'm doing things right. Some might say that I should be expecting variation to catch up with me soon. I say it actually is, in that this rush is the variation compensation for the awful 2009.
And here is the EV graph of the last session. In the first 200 hands, I should have been down, $200, but not $1200, yet there I was, with that low of ($2100). What I need to channel is the focus I have when I'm there. Seriously, if I could just start a session at that point, and play the next 700 hands, it would be a $2k win night.But let's be realistic. Once I'm up $1k on the night, I'll be thinking about locking that in, which means I won't be playing my best poker. I'll be tentative on the big pots, and should I get a cooler here or there and lose a big pot, I may lose focus rather than gain it, since I'll be disappointed I didn't walk away when I was good.
Just another thing I need to work on.
Worst hand wins
Was playing a friendly .10/.25 game with friends on Friday night and it was one of those games where the worst hand came out on top most of the time.
1) I was short, down to $8 from the initial $20, and I 3-bet all-in into a 3 handed pot, trying to buy it, with 65o (6-5 offsuit). I was called by 77 and proceeded to flop a 6 and river another.
2) Against the same opponent, I flopped top-pair with KJ on J93 board, he 3-bet all-in and I called. He turned over T8o and turned a 7 for his straight.
3) The button was playing aggressive and raising with super strong and super weak hands alike. He 3-bet to $5 pre-flop. The SB, who is generally tight passive, called, and I called from the BB with 5s7s. The original raiser folded. The flop came As5c7d, SB checked, I checked, the button moved in for $28, the SB snap called for his stack and I practically beat him to the pot. I knew by his call pre-flop that the SB hit his A, and was not likely to have AA (would've re-raised PF) or A5 or A7 (too big a raise PF to call there). Most likely was A[KQJT], and it would've been a long shot for 55 or 77, albeit possible. Button turns over KK, SB has AJ. I fade their outs and win an $80 pot.
There were good hands that held up too, on occasion. In the end, we all had a good time, and when playing with these guys, that's all that matters.
1) I was short, down to $8 from the initial $20, and I 3-bet all-in into a 3 handed pot, trying to buy it, with 65o (6-5 offsuit). I was called by 77 and proceeded to flop a 6 and river another.
2) Against the same opponent, I flopped top-pair with KJ on J93 board, he 3-bet all-in and I called. He turned over T8o and turned a 7 for his straight.
3) The button was playing aggressive and raising with super strong and super weak hands alike. He 3-bet to $5 pre-flop. The SB, who is generally tight passive, called, and I called from the BB with 5s7s. The original raiser folded. The flop came As5c7d, SB checked, I checked, the button moved in for $28, the SB snap called for his stack and I practically beat him to the pot. I knew by his call pre-flop that the SB hit his A, and was not likely to have AA (would've re-raised PF) or A5 or A7 (too big a raise PF to call there). Most likely was A[KQJT], and it would've been a long shot for 55 or 77, albeit possible. Button turns over KK, SB has AJ. I fade their outs and win an $80 pot.
There were good hands that held up too, on occasion. In the end, we all had a good time, and when playing with these guys, that's all that matters.
Friday, August 13, 2010
UBOC #10 here I come
Finally won my seat to the PLO8 UBOC tourney (event #10, 100k guaranteed) on the third try. I started out a little too aggressive (again!) but this time, since it was the only table I was playing, I re-focused and targeted the weaker players only. Man that strategy worked well! It worked extremely well when the weak player to my right hit a 1 outer high redraw against a decent player (AA68 vs KK27 on a AK8 flop), and then scooped the other good player two to my left for all his chips. So now my mark had the chips to give away, assuming I don't suffer the same fate as my other two opponents.
I clawed my way back from 750 chips to my starting stack of 1.5k when we got to 4-handed.
I found myself at that point with Weak to my right (7k in chips), uber-tight but aggressive (UTBA - 3.5k in chips) to my left and generally tight-passive (TP-3k in chips) across from me. My plan: UTG, I'm calling with any 4 low cards, 4 high cards and raising with good high/low hands (A+234+KQJ+X), and folding to a raise from UTBA and TP. On the button, raise with anything decent to isolate against Weak when he limps UTG (which was always). Complete in my SB when no raises, if there is a raise, play normal blind protection hands. Same thing from the BB.
If I did manage to isloate against Weak, then I'd simply try to value bet any hand with potential on the flop. If I hit on the turn, I'd continue betting, if not, I'd check. There was no fold equity there, so pot control was a must. Then, I'd play the river the same way. I was fortunate enough to get some great river combinations, which *almost* assuredly got me half if not all the pot, which allowed me to bet strong. For example, I bet a QJ4 flop with only a A2J9. Weak called. Turn came 3. He checked, I bet, he called. The river was a J, and I was able to get a value bet of 2/3 pot on the river paid off with only a Q. He had a weaker low draw on the river too, so if a low comes, it's a split pot. In the span of 6 hands, I was up to 5.5k, and he was down to 3k. I then knocked out UTBA when I limped UTG, and he raised from the button. TP and Weak folded and I called with A34K. The flop came K68, I checked raised him all in expecting him to show me AA, and he obliged with AA67. I was happy to see his weak low. Turn was a 5, guaranteeing me 1/2 the pot, and the river 2 gave me the scoop. You rarely win these tourneys without a little luck. :D
A few hands later, I knocked out Weak, and was HU against TP with a 12k to 3k chip advantage. Since we started HU at 30/60 blinds, there was a lot of play left. My strategy was similar to my regular HU SNG strategy: Raise from Button/SB for almost every hand until he fights back and then figure out what sort of hands he's willing to fight with. Let's just say there was a lot of raising on my part. I would dwindle him down to 1.25k, then I'd gamble with a weak hand and he'd double back to 2.5k, but generally, I was constantly trending his stack downwards. During the break, he was calling me the "luckiest ***** in the world" (UB censorship, not mine), and said "You probably don't even know what game you're playing!" to which I replied "Yes I do. It's called bet and fold!" First hand after the break, I raised from the button/SB totally expecting him to re-raise, but he folded, and I knew I will win this easily.
10 minutes later we were done. I'm now registered for 4 events in 8 days. I'm stoked and looking forward to it!
As for the "all-you-can-satellite" contest I mentionned in my last post, I looked at the results page right now, and there have been a few people who already have won over 10 seats, including multiple seats to the same tourney (extra seats paid back in tournament dollars), so there's no way I can win that contest. Ahh, to be young with lots of time on their hands. Hmm... I guess they could be old, never really thought of that, but I guess it's a lot less likely. Probably some student, and potentially an online "pro". <- I quote that because being a "pro" means you make a living from the game, but does not necessarily mean that they make a fortune from it. I probably make more in my day job than they do from their poker.
Anyway, got friends coming over tonight to play. Should be fun as usual!
I clawed my way back from 750 chips to my starting stack of 1.5k when we got to 4-handed.
I found myself at that point with Weak to my right (7k in chips), uber-tight but aggressive (UTBA - 3.5k in chips) to my left and generally tight-passive (TP-3k in chips) across from me. My plan: UTG, I'm calling with any 4 low cards, 4 high cards and raising with good high/low hands (A+234+KQJ+X), and folding to a raise from UTBA and TP. On the button, raise with anything decent to isolate against Weak when he limps UTG (which was always). Complete in my SB when no raises, if there is a raise, play normal blind protection hands. Same thing from the BB.
If I did manage to isloate against Weak, then I'd simply try to value bet any hand with potential on the flop. If I hit on the turn, I'd continue betting, if not, I'd check. There was no fold equity there, so pot control was a must. Then, I'd play the river the same way. I was fortunate enough to get some great river combinations, which *almost* assuredly got me half if not all the pot, which allowed me to bet strong. For example, I bet a QJ4 flop with only a A2J9. Weak called. Turn came 3. He checked, I bet, he called. The river was a J, and I was able to get a value bet of 2/3 pot on the river paid off with only a Q. He had a weaker low draw on the river too, so if a low comes, it's a split pot. In the span of 6 hands, I was up to 5.5k, and he was down to 3k. I then knocked out UTBA when I limped UTG, and he raised from the button. TP and Weak folded and I called with A34K. The flop came K68, I checked raised him all in expecting him to show me AA, and he obliged with AA67. I was happy to see his weak low. Turn was a 5, guaranteeing me 1/2 the pot, and the river 2 gave me the scoop. You rarely win these tourneys without a little luck. :D
A few hands later, I knocked out Weak, and was HU against TP with a 12k to 3k chip advantage. Since we started HU at 30/60 blinds, there was a lot of play left. My strategy was similar to my regular HU SNG strategy: Raise from Button/SB for almost every hand until he fights back and then figure out what sort of hands he's willing to fight with. Let's just say there was a lot of raising on my part. I would dwindle him down to 1.25k, then I'd gamble with a weak hand and he'd double back to 2.5k, but generally, I was constantly trending his stack downwards. During the break, he was calling me the "luckiest ***** in the world" (UB censorship, not mine), and said "You probably don't even know what game you're playing!" to which I replied "Yes I do. It's called bet and fold!" First hand after the break, I raised from the button/SB totally expecting him to re-raise, but he folded, and I knew I will win this easily.
10 minutes later we were done. I'm now registered for 4 events in 8 days. I'm stoked and looking forward to it!
As for the "all-you-can-satellite" contest I mentionned in my last post, I looked at the results page right now, and there have been a few people who already have won over 10 seats, including multiple seats to the same tourney (extra seats paid back in tournament dollars), so there's no way I can win that contest. Ahh, to be young with lots of time on their hands. Hmm... I guess they could be old, never really thought of that, but I guess it's a lot less likely. Probably some student, and potentially an online "pro". <- I quote that because being a "pro" means you make a living from the game, but does not necessarily mean that they make a fortune from it. I probably make more in my day job than they do from their poker.
Anyway, got friends coming over tonight to play. Should be fun as usual!
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Oops
Shouldn't have played last night. I tried 2 more satellites and finished in last place in both. I was tired and distracted playing cash games too. I got stuck in the cash games after a couple of 2 outers helped my opponents scoop some pots, and ended up playing for 5 hours which was 1.5 hours more than I wanted to. I got even, and was preparing to close tables, as I got to the BB in each one. I ended up all-in on one hand and came up short and ended up booking a $350 loss as a result. Here's what happened:
I'm on the button, and I raise with As4sKd7d. Opponent who's been pissed at my "luck" (trust me, I had not really been lucky tonight), re-raises from the SB. He's got nearly $380 total, and I've got him covered. I put him on AA, but potentially a weak AA given how much I'm sure he wants to take a run at me. I call to see a flop. Ks8d6d. Nice. I bet, he raises, and I move all in and he calls (n surprises there any step of the betting). I've got a ton of outs if his low kicker is good. It is as he tables Ac As 6h 3d (I think I've got the suits right). Even money flop. Turn and flop are Qh 6c and he scoops with 3 6's. Dammit! Was even money, and lost all of it (http://twodimes.net/h/?z=7467923)
If I remember, I'll try and post my all-in EV graphs from last night, and for the year. I've been running hot (last night excluded), but I'm actually very happy to see that I'm getting my money in good most of the time (last night excluded).
I'm on the button, and I raise with As4sKd7d. Opponent who's been pissed at my "luck" (trust me, I had not really been lucky tonight), re-raises from the SB. He's got nearly $380 total, and I've got him covered. I put him on AA, but potentially a weak AA given how much I'm sure he wants to take a run at me. I call to see a flop. Ks8d6d. Nice. I bet, he raises, and I move all in and he calls (n surprises there any step of the betting). I've got a ton of outs if his low kicker is good. It is as he tables Ac As 6h 3d (I think I've got the suits right). Even money flop. Turn and flop are Qh 6c and he scoops with 3 6's. Dammit! Was even money, and lost all of it (http://twodimes.net/h/?z=7467923)
If I remember, I'll try and post my all-in EV graphs from last night, and for the year. I've been running hot (last night excluded), but I'm actually very happy to see that I'm getting my money in good most of the time (last night excluded).
Monday, August 9, 2010
More UBOC satellites
I just entered 2 more satellites. One for UBOC#12, a HORSE event on the 24th and one for UBOC#10, a PLO8 event on the 23rd. I won the HORSE entry and came in second and just missed out on the PLO8 entry.
Not a bad ratio: 3 entries out of 4 satellites. I actually bought into the PLO8 event, for $40+4, and used points for the HORSE tourney, so I've put forth $44 for a total of $697 worth of tournament entries! Kick ass!!!!
The HORSE satellite only had 4 players and the PLO8 only had 7. Ideal conditions for me for the most part except that I didn't pay enough attention to the PLO8 tourney. Was really focused on the HORSE because I could tell the players were really bad and I didn't want to waste that opportunity. I thought I could recover in the PLO8 if I started bad.
The PLO8 tourney was won by a player who basically played every hand and ran hot. I went to heads up a 9:2 underdog in chips and worked back to have the lead for a little while. Then we went all in PF with me having AQQ3 against his A34J and I got quartered when the board ran T86A4. Pfft... After that, I pushed a few hands later with QJ35ds PF and ran into AA97, which held up when the board went Q443K.
Oh well. I'll re-enter that PLO8 satellite a few more times. I may play the HORSE one a few more times as well to try and win extra entries which get paid to me in tournament dollars. UB is running a "all-you-can-enter" contest where the person who satellites into the same tourney the most times wins some extra tournament dollars (money to be redeemed for entries into any tournament on UB).
Not a bad ratio: 3 entries out of 4 satellites. I actually bought into the PLO8 event, for $40+4, and used points for the HORSE tourney, so I've put forth $44 for a total of $697 worth of tournament entries! Kick ass!!!!
The HORSE satellite only had 4 players and the PLO8 only had 7. Ideal conditions for me for the most part except that I didn't pay enough attention to the PLO8 tourney. Was really focused on the HORSE because I could tell the players were really bad and I didn't want to waste that opportunity. I thought I could recover in the PLO8 if I started bad.
The PLO8 tourney was won by a player who basically played every hand and ran hot. I went to heads up a 9:2 underdog in chips and worked back to have the lead for a little while. Then we went all in PF with me having AQQ3 against his A34J and I got quartered when the board ran T86A4. Pfft... After that, I pushed a few hands later with QJ35ds PF and ran into AA97, which held up when the board went Q443K.
Oh well. I'll re-enter that PLO8 satellite a few more times. I may play the HORSE one a few more times as well to try and win extra entries which get paid to me in tournament dollars. UB is running a "all-you-can-enter" contest where the person who satellites into the same tourney the most times wins some extra tournament dollars (money to be redeemed for entries into any tournament on UB).
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
UBOC Entries
So much for sucking at NLHE tourneys! Maybe it's the large field tourneys I'm not so good at, but whatever the case, I just played 2 UBOC satellites and won my entries in both.
Both tourneys had 29 entrants and started within 5 minutes of each other so I was playing them simultaneously. It was good because I did share a table with a couple people in both, which helped orient myself a little more.
The first satellite was an entry to UBOC #1, a $300+20 NLHE bounty tourney ($30 a head) w/ 200k guaranteed prize pool. It was a $40+4 satellite, which I used UB points to enter, so it cost me nothing.
The second satellite was an entry to UBOC #4, a $150+12 NLHE bounty tourney ($20 a head) w/ 100k guaranteed prize pool. It was a $25+2.5 satellite, which again I used UB points to enter, so no cost once again!
The events are on August 18th and 20th at 8:05PM both nights.
I'm still waiting for UB to start the satellites to UBOC #10, a 100k guaranteed PLO8 tournament.
I'll be playing more satellites for the rest of the month. Wish me luck!
Both tourneys had 29 entrants and started within 5 minutes of each other so I was playing them simultaneously. It was good because I did share a table with a couple people in both, which helped orient myself a little more.
The first satellite was an entry to UBOC #1, a $300+20 NLHE bounty tourney ($30 a head) w/ 200k guaranteed prize pool. It was a $40+4 satellite, which I used UB points to enter, so it cost me nothing.
The second satellite was an entry to UBOC #4, a $150+12 NLHE bounty tourney ($20 a head) w/ 100k guaranteed prize pool. It was a $25+2.5 satellite, which again I used UB points to enter, so no cost once again!
The events are on August 18th and 20th at 8:05PM both nights.
I'm still waiting for UB to start the satellites to UBOC #10, a 100k guaranteed PLO8 tournament.
I'll be playing more satellites for the rest of the month. Wish me luck!
Monday, August 2, 2010
July recap
I suck at NLHE tourneys. I played in 8 this month and I don't think I lasted past 1.5 hours in any of them. One night last week, I played in 3 and was out in 45 minutes in each of them. To put it in perspective, these tourneys can run 5 to 7 hours, and the money bubble is close to halfway (2.5-3.5 hours). I'm getting trapped and hosed. I flop TPTK, and I run into overpair. I hit TPTK against an opponent I put on JJ or QQ pre-flop, and the flop comes K92, w/ 2 hearts. The turn is a heart and the river is a heart. I bet flop and turn OOP, but I have to check/fold to his river bet. 1/2 the time he has the heart, and 1/2 the time he doesn't. I'm in the SB with K8, and complete, the BB raises a little and I call. Flop is 832, which is excellent for my hand. I bet, he raises, I call. Turn is a 4, I check/call. River is another 3, I check/call again, only for him to turn over 88. The last 8 in the deck comes on the flop to enable him to suck out max value.
The good news is that I don't suck at PLO8 cash games. Moved up and played a lot of 2/4, aka 400PLO8. I killed it this month.
bonus: $55
400PLO8: $1800+$1110
200PLO8: $885-$35
100PLO8: ($330)
HU PLO8 SNGs: $325
NLHE tourneys: ($710)
Total: $3100
I tried spending some time tonight watching a NLHE tourney to see if not playing would help me observe better and enable me to figure out what my opponents are doing, but it didn't work. I can't tell if a player is making a river call with Q6s (was in the BB and saw the flop for free) because he is good and knows his top pair weak kicker is good, or because he is bad and overvalued a pair in his hand.
I do know this, a lot of players seem to call light on the flop. A lot of continuation bets are called, though I have noticed that the active players are c-betting a lot smaller than I do. They are all better 1/2 the pot, quite possibly to save money to be able to fire again on the turn.
Maybe I did learn something after all....
The good news is that I don't suck at PLO8 cash games. Moved up and played a lot of 2/4, aka 400PLO8. I killed it this month.
bonus: $55
400PLO8: $1800+$1110
200PLO8: $885-$35
100PLO8: ($330)
HU PLO8 SNGs: $325
NLHE tourneys: ($710)
Total: $3100
I tried spending some time tonight watching a NLHE tourney to see if not playing would help me observe better and enable me to figure out what my opponents are doing, but it didn't work. I can't tell if a player is making a river call with Q6s (was in the BB and saw the flop for free) because he is good and knows his top pair weak kicker is good, or because he is bad and overvalued a pair in his hand.
I do know this, a lot of players seem to call light on the flop. A lot of continuation bets are called, though I have noticed that the active players are c-betting a lot smaller than I do. They are all better 1/2 the pot, quite possibly to save money to be able to fire again on the turn.
Maybe I did learn something after all....
Friday, July 16, 2010
Cold deck pt2
After the 100k guaranteed disaster, I sign up for the $5+.5 PLO8 2k guaranteed.
After a few orbits, I raise PF with Ac2dKc8d and get 3 callers, including the aggressive player to my right. Flop comes Kh9c5c. Aggro player to my right bets the pot. I've got a monster hand right now: Top-pair-top-kicker (TPTK) + nut flush draw. The question is: Do I smooth call, or raise? I decide to raise, and he pushes all-in. He turns over a monster draw himself w/ AhKc6c7c.
Turns out I'm a slight favorite, (http://twodimes.net/h/?z=7413291) but it don't matter tonight. Turn is the Jh and he hits an 8h on the river for his straight. And I'm out of another tourney!
Let's see if I can make another 30 at the cash table I'm playing right now and break-even. If I lose $40 from where I'm at, I'll book the $70 loss and call it a night.
After a few orbits, I raise PF with Ac2dKc8d and get 3 callers, including the aggressive player to my right. Flop comes Kh9c5c. Aggro player to my right bets the pot. I've got a monster hand right now: Top-pair-top-kicker (TPTK) + nut flush draw. The question is: Do I smooth call, or raise? I decide to raise, and he pushes all-in. He turns over a monster draw himself w/ AhKc6c7c.
Turns out I'm a slight favorite, (http://twodimes.net/h/?z=7413291) but it don't matter tonight. Turn is the Jh and he hits an 8h on the river for his straight. And I'm out of another tourney!
Let's see if I can make another 30 at the cash table I'm playing right now and break-even. If I lose $40 from where I'm at, I'll book the $70 loss and call it a night.
Cold deck
PS Nightly 100k tourney, $150+12 buy-in.
4th hand of the tourney at the 10/20 blind level. I'm in the SB with KK. UTG+1 raises to 60, UTG+2 calls, and it folds around to me. I raise to 300. If UTG has AA, I expect him to raise, but UTG+1 only calls which is a good sign, however UTG+2 re-raises all-in 2840. This play is usually typical of a small pair or AK trying to get fold equity (FE), so I snap call thinking I'm ahead. I was right about UTG+1 because he ends up folding, but lo and behold, UTG+2 has AA. WTF!!!!! So cold of a deck. :( I never expected to see AA in that spot. Was he really playing it that way expecting/praying for a raise behind. I have no idea.
10 hands later, I bust with my remaining 160 chips. I've lost more in less time at cash tables, but man that hurts.
I've been struggling in the 70k and 100k tourneys. Things just haven't been going my way. Not to say I haven't had my share of bad plays. It seems like everytime I do get a stack, within 2 orbits I'm giving it back by misreading my opponents and donking off my chips. But situations like these keep coming up at the wrong time.
4th hand of the tourney at the 10/20 blind level. I'm in the SB with KK. UTG+1 raises to 60, UTG+2 calls, and it folds around to me. I raise to 300. If UTG has AA, I expect him to raise, but UTG+1 only calls which is a good sign, however UTG+2 re-raises all-in 2840. This play is usually typical of a small pair or AK trying to get fold equity (FE), so I snap call thinking I'm ahead. I was right about UTG+1 because he ends up folding, but lo and behold, UTG+2 has AA. WTF!!!!! So cold of a deck. :( I never expected to see AA in that spot. Was he really playing it that way expecting/praying for a raise behind. I have no idea.
10 hands later, I bust with my remaining 160 chips. I've lost more in less time at cash tables, but man that hurts.
I've been struggling in the 70k and 100k tourneys. Things just haven't been going my way. Not to say I haven't had my share of bad plays. It seems like everytime I do get a stack, within 2 orbits I'm giving it back by misreading my opponents and donking off my chips. But situations like these keep coming up at the wrong time.
Monday, July 12, 2010
First $1k pot win
I had a baseball game last night. When I got home, I did a bunch of loose ends to get ready for the week, then I decided to play a little poker. I started on PS and played a couple of SNGs. Lost the first $55+2.50, and won the second a $100+5.
I still didn't feel like going to sleep yet, so I went on UB and looked at their PLO8 cash games. All the 200PLO8 tables were full (4) with waiting lists on 3 of them. Didn't really feel like waiting...
There was 1 person sitting alone at a 6 max 400PLO8 table, and 7 at a 9 max 400PLO8 table, so I sat down at both of them. To my chagrin, the player at the 6 max table sat out immediately. So I played the 9 max, and lost a few small hands. Then a person at the 9 max table moved to the 6 max table and started playing me HU. He buys in for $300 and I'm starting with $400. First hand, I raise from the button/SB with a weak 8s7d5h3s and he re-raises me from the BB. I call, since, for the first hand we are both deep enough to make this loose call. The flop comes Td8h5s. He bets out for the pot. I'm convinced he has A2, and possibly AA2, but with 2 pair, I have the opportunity to break him, so I move in and he calls. He ends up tabling AQ23 (http://twodimes.net/h/?z=7405290). Thankfully the board ran Jd and Th and I scooped the $700 pot.
He buys in again, this time for $693, which puts us about even. Two things: 1) This was what UB calls a deepstack table, which allows double the usual buy-in amount, so he could buy-in for up to $800 instead of the usual $400. And 2) when someone buys in for that odd a number, it usually means that's all they have left in their account.
We play, and he plays even more aggressive than me. My moves are failing, and lo and behold, I've dropped from the $700 after the first win, back to my $400 starting stack. Then we get into a hand, and he rivers a wheel (A-2-3-4-5) and takes my $400. :( So now, his stack is $1200, so I go for it and buy back in for $800. When I do it, I'm feeling confident I can break him, but at the same time, I'm wondering if I'm on tilt...
We play for a while longer, then another guy shows up (B) and takes $300 from my first opponent (A), and he leaves! :( So I decide to play with the new guy for a while to figure out if I can beat him. It wasn't so bad as he wasn't nearly as aggressive as the other guy. I manage to chip up to $900 when the first opponent returns. So now we are back to 3 handed, with (B) to my right and (A) to my left. After a little while, I get the hand to break (A).
I'm in the SB w/ AhAs5c4c. (B) folds his button and I elect to call, since I figure he'll raise here with just about anything, and he did, making it $12 to go. I simply call, not trying to give away the strength of my hand. The flop comes Kc6h4h. I check with the intention of raising. He bets $24, I raise to $96 and he re-raises $312. I take a breath, and figure, more often than not, I'm ahead either high or low, which is a great scooping opportunity. So I re-raise him all-in and he calls with Ac2cKs5d and the race is on (http://twodimes.net/h/?z=7405285). Running 9s 9c follow and I'm the recipient of a $1231.40 pot.
Overall, I won $450 on that table, and $420 on the other table, and $30 in HU tourneys on PS for a $900 profit for the night.
I still didn't feel like going to sleep yet, so I went on UB and looked at their PLO8 cash games. All the 200PLO8 tables were full (4) with waiting lists on 3 of them. Didn't really feel like waiting...
There was 1 person sitting alone at a 6 max 400PLO8 table, and 7 at a 9 max 400PLO8 table, so I sat down at both of them. To my chagrin, the player at the 6 max table sat out immediately. So I played the 9 max, and lost a few small hands. Then a person at the 9 max table moved to the 6 max table and started playing me HU. He buys in for $300 and I'm starting with $400. First hand, I raise from the button/SB with a weak 8s7d5h3s and he re-raises me from the BB. I call, since, for the first hand we are both deep enough to make this loose call. The flop comes Td8h5s. He bets out for the pot. I'm convinced he has A2, and possibly AA2, but with 2 pair, I have the opportunity to break him, so I move in and he calls. He ends up tabling AQ23 (http://twodimes.net/h/?z=7405290). Thankfully the board ran Jd and Th and I scooped the $700 pot.
He buys in again, this time for $693, which puts us about even. Two things: 1) This was what UB calls a deepstack table, which allows double the usual buy-in amount, so he could buy-in for up to $800 instead of the usual $400. And 2) when someone buys in for that odd a number, it usually means that's all they have left in their account.
We play, and he plays even more aggressive than me. My moves are failing, and lo and behold, I've dropped from the $700 after the first win, back to my $400 starting stack. Then we get into a hand, and he rivers a wheel (A-2-3-4-5) and takes my $400. :( So now, his stack is $1200, so I go for it and buy back in for $800. When I do it, I'm feeling confident I can break him, but at the same time, I'm wondering if I'm on tilt...
We play for a while longer, then another guy shows up (B) and takes $300 from my first opponent (A), and he leaves! :( So I decide to play with the new guy for a while to figure out if I can beat him. It wasn't so bad as he wasn't nearly as aggressive as the other guy. I manage to chip up to $900 when the first opponent returns. So now we are back to 3 handed, with (B) to my right and (A) to my left. After a little while, I get the hand to break (A).
I'm in the SB w/ AhAs5c4c. (B) folds his button and I elect to call, since I figure he'll raise here with just about anything, and he did, making it $12 to go. I simply call, not trying to give away the strength of my hand. The flop comes Kc6h4h. I check with the intention of raising. He bets $24, I raise to $96 and he re-raises $312. I take a breath, and figure, more often than not, I'm ahead either high or low, which is a great scooping opportunity. So I re-raise him all-in and he calls with Ac2cKs5d and the race is on (http://twodimes.net/h/?z=7405285). Running 9s 9c follow and I'm the recipient of a $1231.40 pot.
Overall, I won $450 on that table, and $420 on the other table, and $30 in HU tourneys on PS for a $900 profit for the night.
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
June and year-end recap
June recap:
Hollywood: ($136)
UB: $2398
PS: $925
Misc: ($125)
Total: $3065
To start the month, I had two consecutive $1k weeks ($1037, $1501). I've been on such a ridiculous tear, I didn't want to stop. But alas, life got in the way. Work has been picking up to the point where I'm working from home a couple of nights a week. Then, for the last week, I was down in Lake George with the family. While they did have internet access and I was free to myself for an hour per night, the connection was too flaky to risk any money at the tables.
I haven't playing Hollywood in a long time, and apparently as a result, they deducted $10 from my inactive account. So, rather than just cash out the rest, I went and bought into a 100 PLO8 and proceeded to donk it all away. Stupid, but now I don't think I'll go back. The past couple of months, they've been sending me emails with a no-load bonus, but every time I clicked the link to activate it, it takes me to the site and there is no such bonus there. I've made a nice $1235 profit there over the years. Time to close the spreadsheet, and add it to the other sites I no longer play (Empire, BoDog, Noble, Superior).
For UB, I played mostly 200PLO8, but I've started to add the 400PLO8 game as well. On the first night I played, I ran into a lunatic. Granted, I didn't know it was a lunatic until I made a curious/loose call that won me a $550 pot. I had never seen this person at the 200PLO8 level, so either they are very good, or just play the 400 cause that's the level they like. There is another player, a UB pro, who only plays the 400PLO8 game, so I didn't dismiss either possibility.
Getting back to the hand, I raised coming in, as I do most of the time, w/ AhTd2s5c and she (assumption from the username) called from the SB. The flop came Kc 7h Tc. She checked, I bet 2/3 of the pot with middle pair + backdoor nut low draw w/ no club draw, and she re-raised me the full pot. Now, at this point, I have about 1/6 of my starting stack in there ($50) , and it's a $100+ raise to me. Either I fold, or raise the rest of my stack and get an insta-call (there's no way anyone folds there, even on a dead bluff because you're getting almost 3:1 on your money with 2 cards to come). I decide that there is something not right with that play and so I call. In the 200PLO8 game, I will likely fold this against most opponents. They know me for being aggressive, so they can expect my bet and thus can slowplay big hands. She doesn't know me well enough to expect that. So this is screaming flush draw to me. The reason this is a loose call is that if she has FD + a K in her hand, I'm a serious dog and I know it. She turns over Qc3cTh4d for middle pair, weak kicker, and weak flush draw (anything but nut flush draw, NFD, is weak here). So, it turns out she is just another lunatic who chases their FDs. The turn is a 5 and river is another K to give me the scoop. Ended up winning $700+ from that table that night.
On PS, I continued to play the $100+5 HU game against my favorite opponent. Ended up +$373 for the month on HU SNGs. I started to play some more cash at PS. Clearly I needed to adjust as my earlier results there were poor, so I became a little more patient. It paid off with a +$400 session in the middle of the month. I'm now profitable again on PS after being negative for a while.
Finally the misc... That amount paid for the latest version of PokerTracker: PT3. I bought my first version of it about 2 1/2 years ago, and it improved my game tremendously. At the time, I was playing 25PLO8 and 50PLO8. There were a bunch of players whom I thought were solid and profitable, but when I installed the software and reviewed their histories, it turns out they were not as good as I had been led to believe. I used the software to determine their opening hand requirements and as such began to understand where I was in a hand against them and my results improved immediately. I wrote down all the important information in their notes: VPIP (how often they come into a pot), PFR (how often they raise coming in), PFRw (what they raise with coming in). I used this information and began to know where I was at more often, thereby being able to fold hands I know were losers, raise with hands which I was sure were winners, and bluff with hand I know they couldn't call with.
The latest version has all the same functionality, with additional features which I use, and help me when I'm multi-tabling. I use PFRw less, and really only care about PFR and VPIP, and AFQ (Aggression frequency). The latter is very important to know whether or not an opponent will bet out or raise on the flop/turn/river, and helps determine value bet vs slowplay/check-raise strategies.
So that's June. For the year....
I started this blog with a race to 10k. I abandoned that in August (http://secondnutsux.blogspot.com/2009/08/abandonning-race.html) after going the wrong direction for about 1k. But it turns out, I'm not that far off. I started around $8k and am now at $15.5k lifetime, so I've doubled my stack with a 7.5k win. It doesn't matter that 6k of that is the past 3 months, or the profits came from a different strategy than what I originally had planned. I came close, and I'm happy about that.
I'm aiming for 2 goals in the next 12 months:
1) A large final table score, preferably with a 5 digit payout. So this means I'm going to play the nightly 70k and 100k on PS more often. I'll look for other tournaments on other sites to achieve this as well.
2) Win an entry to a live tournament.
Again, I may get derailed, or I may get there in a different way, but that's what I'm targeting. I'll continue to play my PLO8 of course, and see if I can continue to move up and play the more challenging games.
Hollywood: ($136)
UB: $2398
PS: $925
Misc: ($125)
Total: $3065
To start the month, I had two consecutive $1k weeks ($1037, $1501). I've been on such a ridiculous tear, I didn't want to stop. But alas, life got in the way. Work has been picking up to the point where I'm working from home a couple of nights a week. Then, for the last week, I was down in Lake George with the family. While they did have internet access and I was free to myself for an hour per night, the connection was too flaky to risk any money at the tables.
I haven't playing Hollywood in a long time, and apparently as a result, they deducted $10 from my inactive account. So, rather than just cash out the rest, I went and bought into a 100 PLO8 and proceeded to donk it all away. Stupid, but now I don't think I'll go back. The past couple of months, they've been sending me emails with a no-load bonus, but every time I clicked the link to activate it, it takes me to the site and there is no such bonus there. I've made a nice $1235 profit there over the years. Time to close the spreadsheet, and add it to the other sites I no longer play (Empire, BoDog, Noble, Superior).
For UB, I played mostly 200PLO8, but I've started to add the 400PLO8 game as well. On the first night I played, I ran into a lunatic. Granted, I didn't know it was a lunatic until I made a curious/loose call that won me a $550 pot. I had never seen this person at the 200PLO8 level, so either they are very good, or just play the 400 cause that's the level they like. There is another player, a UB pro, who only plays the 400PLO8 game, so I didn't dismiss either possibility.
Getting back to the hand, I raised coming in, as I do most of the time, w/ AhTd2s5c and she (assumption from the username) called from the SB. The flop came Kc 7h Tc. She checked, I bet 2/3 of the pot with middle pair + backdoor nut low draw w/ no club draw, and she re-raised me the full pot. Now, at this point, I have about 1/6 of my starting stack in there ($50) , and it's a $100+ raise to me. Either I fold, or raise the rest of my stack and get an insta-call (there's no way anyone folds there, even on a dead bluff because you're getting almost 3:1 on your money with 2 cards to come). I decide that there is something not right with that play and so I call. In the 200PLO8 game, I will likely fold this against most opponents. They know me for being aggressive, so they can expect my bet and thus can slowplay big hands. She doesn't know me well enough to expect that. So this is screaming flush draw to me. The reason this is a loose call is that if she has FD + a K in her hand, I'm a serious dog and I know it. She turns over Qc3cTh4d for middle pair, weak kicker, and weak flush draw (anything but nut flush draw, NFD, is weak here). So, it turns out she is just another lunatic who chases their FDs. The turn is a 5 and river is another K to give me the scoop. Ended up winning $700+ from that table that night.
On PS, I continued to play the $100+5 HU game against my favorite opponent. Ended up +$373 for the month on HU SNGs. I started to play some more cash at PS. Clearly I needed to adjust as my earlier results there were poor, so I became a little more patient. It paid off with a +$400 session in the middle of the month. I'm now profitable again on PS after being negative for a while.
Finally the misc... That amount paid for the latest version of PokerTracker: PT3. I bought my first version of it about 2 1/2 years ago, and it improved my game tremendously. At the time, I was playing 25PLO8 and 50PLO8. There were a bunch of players whom I thought were solid and profitable, but when I installed the software and reviewed their histories, it turns out they were not as good as I had been led to believe. I used the software to determine their opening hand requirements and as such began to understand where I was in a hand against them and my results improved immediately. I wrote down all the important information in their notes: VPIP (how often they come into a pot), PFR (how often they raise coming in), PFRw (what they raise with coming in). I used this information and began to know where I was at more often, thereby being able to fold hands I know were losers, raise with hands which I was sure were winners, and bluff with hand I know they couldn't call with.
The latest version has all the same functionality, with additional features which I use, and help me when I'm multi-tabling. I use PFRw less, and really only care about PFR and VPIP, and AFQ (Aggression frequency). The latter is very important to know whether or not an opponent will bet out or raise on the flop/turn/river, and helps determine value bet vs slowplay/check-raise strategies.
So that's June. For the year....
I started this blog with a race to 10k. I abandoned that in August (http://secondnutsux.blogspot.com/2009/08/abandonning-race.html) after going the wrong direction for about 1k. But it turns out, I'm not that far off. I started around $8k and am now at $15.5k lifetime, so I've doubled my stack with a 7.5k win. It doesn't matter that 6k of that is the past 3 months, or the profits came from a different strategy than what I originally had planned. I came close, and I'm happy about that.
I'm aiming for 2 goals in the next 12 months:
1) A large final table score, preferably with a 5 digit payout. So this means I'm going to play the nightly 70k and 100k on PS more often. I'll look for other tournaments on other sites to achieve this as well.
2) Win an entry to a live tournament.
Again, I may get derailed, or I may get there in a different way, but that's what I'm targeting. I'll continue to play my PLO8 of course, and see if I can continue to move up and play the more challenging games.
Sunday, June 6, 2010
May Recap
UB: +1245
PS: +785
Total: +2030
That is the best month I've ever had, bar none. Played a lot of PokerStars at the beginning of the month and a few HU tourneys on UB. Things were going alright, nothing spectacular. Up a couple hundred on PS, down a couple hundred on UB. Then things changed.
The first thing sucked. UB decided to pull their higher stakes PLO8 HU tourneys around the 10th of the month. No more $50+2.5 or $100+5 tourneys. Only $24+2. WTF?! Those were good for around 2 wins out of 3 versus some opponents, in about 1.5 hours of play ($33 or $66 per hour!). I was pissed. That meant only cash at UB. While not so bad, there are some nights I know I'm a little overly aggressive, and a HU tourney is a good way to release it, without losing your entire bankroll.
What I don't get is:
1) How much does it cost them to have that tourney in the lobby? It's not like they have a dealer sitting at the table doing nothing, right? I just don't see why it costs them anything more than pennies to leave that as an option.
2) People played almost every night. It's not like the game was never played. I averaged about 15 games a month (for about $50 in rake for them), and I'm sure others more.
Given what had just happened, I came up with a plan that I would go to PS first every night and check out the HU tourneys. If I saw an opponent that I liked, I'd play them, otherwise, I'd got play cash at UB.
That worked out very well. Except for a losing session on the 7th (-$323), the next 9 sessions at UB went as follows (not including bonus cash): +151, +26, +45, +203, +32, +710, +185, +130, +150. I was averaging about a 2 hour session each time, and with bonus cash, was close to $100/hr .
If things weren't going good enough, on the 18th, I found my favorite UB opponent sitting at the PLO8 HU tables on PS. I could not have been happier. I swear I was so giddy when I saw him there, my wife had to ask me what was up. I was happy for good reason; so far (including a little of June), I'm 4/1 in the $100+5 and 2/1 in the $200+10.
...
In the middle of the month, as I was entering my stats, I found an interesting weekly pattern. I did very well ever fifth week. I can't exact figure out why, since it didn't correspond to anything in particular. The pattern was
-275, -8, +175, +203, +751
+428, +784, -469, -623, +1324
-805, +139, -185, +321, +656
+22, -79, +28, -85, +602
I'd say the only anomaly to the pattern is the +748 in the second group, but since the biggest total still happened on the 5th week of that sequence, it's good enough.
I've heard of biorhythms, which are natural highs and lows of different parts of our existence (energy, emotional strength, concentration), and just decided that part of it must be at work. So, since I was about to start the first week of a new sequence, I tried to be conscious of it. I wanted to see if I was more irritable and prone to go on tilt and see if I could control my emotions better. I'd like to say that helped with the results, but in reality, I just ended up in a great session on the 22nd where I got one opponent on UB with second best every time I had the nuts. I took $500 and $400 pots on separate tables within minutes of each other.
That said, I'm still going to try and monitor this. If I can figure out when I'm more susceptible to poor play, and not play at those times, I'll improve my results.
PS: +785
Total: +2030
That is the best month I've ever had, bar none. Played a lot of PokerStars at the beginning of the month and a few HU tourneys on UB. Things were going alright, nothing spectacular. Up a couple hundred on PS, down a couple hundred on UB. Then things changed.
The first thing sucked. UB decided to pull their higher stakes PLO8 HU tourneys around the 10th of the month. No more $50+2.5 or $100+5 tourneys. Only $24+2. WTF?! Those were good for around 2 wins out of 3 versus some opponents, in about 1.5 hours of play ($33 or $66 per hour!). I was pissed. That meant only cash at UB. While not so bad, there are some nights I know I'm a little overly aggressive, and a HU tourney is a good way to release it, without losing your entire bankroll.
What I don't get is:
1) How much does it cost them to have that tourney in the lobby? It's not like they have a dealer sitting at the table doing nothing, right? I just don't see why it costs them anything more than pennies to leave that as an option.
2) People played almost every night. It's not like the game was never played. I averaged about 15 games a month (for about $50 in rake for them), and I'm sure others more.
Given what had just happened, I came up with a plan that I would go to PS first every night and check out the HU tourneys. If I saw an opponent that I liked, I'd play them, otherwise, I'd got play cash at UB.
That worked out very well. Except for a losing session on the 7th (-$323), the next 9 sessions at UB went as follows (not including bonus cash): +151, +26, +45, +203, +32, +710, +185, +130, +150. I was averaging about a 2 hour session each time, and with bonus cash, was close to $100/hr .
If things weren't going good enough, on the 18th, I found my favorite UB opponent sitting at the PLO8 HU tables on PS. I could not have been happier. I swear I was so giddy when I saw him there, my wife had to ask me what was up. I was happy for good reason; so far (including a little of June), I'm 4/1 in the $100+5 and 2/1 in the $200+10.
...
In the middle of the month, as I was entering my stats, I found an interesting weekly pattern. I did very well ever fifth week. I can't exact figure out why, since it didn't correspond to anything in particular. The pattern was
-275, -8, +175, +203, +751
+428, +784, -469, -623, +1324
-805, +139, -185, +321, +656
+22, -79, +28, -85, +602
I'd say the only anomaly to the pattern is the +748 in the second group, but since the biggest total still happened on the 5th week of that sequence, it's good enough.
I've heard of biorhythms, which are natural highs and lows of different parts of our existence (energy, emotional strength, concentration), and just decided that part of it must be at work. So, since I was about to start the first week of a new sequence, I tried to be conscious of it. I wanted to see if I was more irritable and prone to go on tilt and see if I could control my emotions better. I'd like to say that helped with the results, but in reality, I just ended up in a great session on the 22nd where I got one opponent on UB with second best every time I had the nuts. I took $500 and $400 pots on separate tables within minutes of each other.
That said, I'm still going to try and monitor this. If I can figure out when I'm more susceptible to poor play, and not play at those times, I'll improve my results.
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Rehab
Hi. My name is Eddie and I am a bluff-aholic! I need rehab! For the third time in four tries I donked out of Poker Stars' Nightly 70k by pushing too hard with marginal hands, or cbetting the flop AND the turn, only to get called all the way down. I know this is the wrong way to play a large entry event (1500+ players) yet I'm having difficulty fighting my tendencies.
The irony, of course, is that PLO8 is supposed to be the game with the least amount of bluffing due to the large amount of possibilities. Of course, I bluff like crazy in that game too, because so few people expect it. Tonight was a good night, because I ran many river bluffs and got away with a lot more than I didn't.
Getting back to the Nightly70k, I need to improve, because this is a tournament I like playing in. I haven't been playing a lot of NLHE tourneys, and I want to get back into it because that is where the big scores are. I've re-read Harrington. I'm re-reading Sklansky. I think at this point it is just re-learning the nuances, which I had a good feel for back in 2008 when I won my last tourney, and figuring out when to push, and when to slow down.
The irony, of course, is that PLO8 is supposed to be the game with the least amount of bluffing due to the large amount of possibilities. Of course, I bluff like crazy in that game too, because so few people expect it. Tonight was a good night, because I ran many river bluffs and got away with a lot more than I didn't.
Getting back to the Nightly70k, I need to improve, because this is a tournament I like playing in. I haven't been playing a lot of NLHE tourneys, and I want to get back into it because that is where the big scores are. I've re-read Harrington. I'm re-reading Sklansky. I think at this point it is just re-learning the nuances, which I had a good feel for back in 2008 when I won my last tourney, and figuring out when to push, and when to slow down.
Sunday, May 2, 2010
April recap
It's been a nice month. I have been able to continue on the play from March. First the numbers:
UB: +910
PS: +80
Total: +990.
Just shy of a $1000 month. Based on the results of March, I had focused on playing UB and most of the UB results occurred at the beginning of the month.
For the latter part of the month, I was back at PS trying to play in their 70k guaranteed NLHE tourney. It is a $50+5 buy-in tourney and first play pays about 12k. My only rules for playing in it are that I must win my $55 before buying in. So I play some 100PLO8 and some 50PLO8 or some PLO8 SNGs before hand. If I make my $55, I stop the cash games and sign up for the tourney. I find that this is actually helping me stay conservative in the cash games, and improving my results.
I've played in it 3 times so far. Average number of players in about 1500 usually getting the payout slightly above the 70k. The first 2 attempts didn't go so well. Too aggressive in the first hour of the tourney and busted in about 1000th place. They just don't fold, and I wasn't adjusting. The third time was better. I got a lot of value out of my hands and managed to chip up from 3k to 12k. Then I had my AA cracked by AK, and was back down to 5k in chips. I battled back a little, but then I got switched tables with my 5k stack on blinds at 150/300/25, so I was all in or nothing. Went busto in 315 with cash paid at 234.
The prize pool is top heavy, so I need to balance cashing vs getting in the money with enough chips to make a run at first. My play is getting better, but it's clear that my game is not where it used to be. I just need a run like I did when I won the $50+5 tourney on Tower (200 players for $2.2k first place). I got an early chip lead there and was able to control the table all the way out.
I'll keep at it this month. If I don't see improvements, I'll stop. At least it is fun, and it's good to keep me from burning out.
UB: +910
PS: +80
Total: +990.
Just shy of a $1000 month. Based on the results of March, I had focused on playing UB and most of the UB results occurred at the beginning of the month.
For the latter part of the month, I was back at PS trying to play in their 70k guaranteed NLHE tourney. It is a $50+5 buy-in tourney and first play pays about 12k. My only rules for playing in it are that I must win my $55 before buying in. So I play some 100PLO8 and some 50PLO8 or some PLO8 SNGs before hand. If I make my $55, I stop the cash games and sign up for the tourney. I find that this is actually helping me stay conservative in the cash games, and improving my results.
I've played in it 3 times so far. Average number of players in about 1500 usually getting the payout slightly above the 70k. The first 2 attempts didn't go so well. Too aggressive in the first hour of the tourney and busted in about 1000th place. They just don't fold, and I wasn't adjusting. The third time was better. I got a lot of value out of my hands and managed to chip up from 3k to 12k. Then I had my AA cracked by AK, and was back down to 5k in chips. I battled back a little, but then I got switched tables with my 5k stack on blinds at 150/300/25, so I was all in or nothing. Went busto in 315 with cash paid at 234.
The prize pool is top heavy, so I need to balance cashing vs getting in the money with enough chips to make a run at first. My play is getting better, but it's clear that my game is not where it used to be. I just need a run like I did when I won the $50+5 tourney on Tower (200 players for $2.2k first place). I got an early chip lead there and was able to control the table all the way out.
I'll keep at it this month. If I don't see improvements, I'll stop. At least it is fun, and it's good to keep me from burning out.
Monday, April 5, 2010
What are the odds?
Besides seeing AA, KK, QQ (me), JJ, and TT dealt to 5 players at a 10 handed table in a tournament (The AA actually held up to win, and I was the only one to fold PF when the action went: me- raise, next re-raise, all-in, all-in, all-in, me-fold, next all-in), the following is probably the coolest thing I have seen:
I was dealt the *exact* same cards in consecutive hands in a PLO8 HU SNG. The odds of this are 270274:1
Hand #45:
Hand #46:
I never did check the odds of AA, KK, QQ, JJ, and TT being dealt on the same hand at a 10 handed table. Lets see if I can work it out. Each individually is 1/221 to get one of those pairs, and 216/221 to not get any of those 5 pairs. There are 10 players at the table, therefore, by my count there are 252 permutations of pair / no pair to the 10 players. Rough calculations have [(1/221)^5]*[(216/221)^5]*252 for roughly 1:2350000000. Wow, either I really screwed up the math, or that was very rare indeed!
Speaking of odds and long shot outcomes, I won the SNG by spiking a 1 outer on the river (mind you I was up 5:1 in chip count at the time) when my trip 5's sucked out on trip 10's to a Tc5c2d board (I figured him for the low+flush draw) and neither of us had low backup.
I was dealt the *exact* same cards in consecutive hands in a PLO8 HU SNG. The odds of this are 270274:1
Hand #45:
Hand #46:
I never did check the odds of AA, KK, QQ, JJ, and TT being dealt on the same hand at a 10 handed table. Lets see if I can work it out. Each individually is 1/221 to get one of those pairs, and 216/221 to not get any of those 5 pairs. There are 10 players at the table, therefore, by my count there are 252 permutations of pair / no pair to the 10 players. Rough calculations have [(1/221)^5]*[(216/221)^5]*252 for roughly 1:2350000000. Wow, either I really screwed up the math, or that was very rare indeed!
Speaking of odds and long shot outcomes, I won the SNG by spiking a 1 outer on the river (mind you I was up 5:1 in chip count at the time) when my trip 5's sucked out on trip 10's to a Tc5c2d board (I figured him for the low+flush draw) and neither of us had low backup.
Saturday, April 3, 2010
Ethics
I held a poker game at my place at the end of February. It was a SNG style tourney with 9 players and rebuys for the first couple of hours. I managed to get away from some big hands that were beat (UTG calls, I raise on the button with QQ, BB calls, UTG re-raises, I muck, BB calls, flop comes J62, BB moves all-in, UTG calls. BB=QJ, UTG=AA). Other than that, I grinded and got myself HU against the UTG from that hand. This is where it gets interesting. I get dealt KK on the Button/SB. I call, he checks. He had been raising occasionally my button calls, so this play was worth the risk. Flop is J92. He checks, I bet he calls. Turn is a 7. He checks, I bet, he calls. Sorry I don't remember the exact bet amounts, but in general, he was the slight chip leader to start the hand (about 60/40) and about 1/2 of my stack is now in the pot. River is a T. He just needs an 8 for the straight. He checks, I check behind him. He says he was chasing the straight an only has top-pair and tables J8! I show him my KK, and he says good hand and I start pulling in the chips, now with a close to 3/2 chip advantage.
Was that wrong?! He's no novice. He should be able to read his hand correctly. I've played in cash games with friends where I've had to point out when someone has misread their winning hand. Either cause we're playing crazy home games with wild cards where the hand is hard to read in general, or because they are new and don't quite grasp everything. I've given up pots I was personally involved in before, so it's not like I've only corrected mistakes in hands I wasn't involved in.
In this case, I just couldn't. I got greedy, but isn't that the point in poker, to win the money? I've read "Poker winners are different" by Alan Schoonmaker PhD, and the common theme in that book is that you do what it takes to win. You shut out everything else. It is immoral to be deceitful in real life, but not at the poker table (like slowplaying AA UTG in the hopes of re-raising).
I'd love to hear opinions about this. I don't have remorse, ok maybe a little, but the difference between 1st ($140) and 2nd ($60) was just too great for me to be honest that time.
Was that wrong?! He's no novice. He should be able to read his hand correctly. I've played in cash games with friends where I've had to point out when someone has misread their winning hand. Either cause we're playing crazy home games with wild cards where the hand is hard to read in general, or because they are new and don't quite grasp everything. I've given up pots I was personally involved in before, so it's not like I've only corrected mistakes in hands I wasn't involved in.
In this case, I just couldn't. I got greedy, but isn't that the point in poker, to win the money? I've read "Poker winners are different" by Alan Schoonmaker PhD, and the common theme in that book is that you do what it takes to win. You shut out everything else. It is immoral to be deceitful in real life, but not at the poker table (like slowplaying AA UTG in the hopes of re-raising).
I'd love to hear opinions about this. I don't have remorse, ok maybe a little, but the difference between 1st ($140) and 2nd ($60) was just too great for me to be honest that time.
March recap
It's been an up and down month. I've had too many 2009 flashbacks for my liking. 2 sessions have gone 6 hours deep, with me stuck trying to recover from horrendous beats to start off the session.
In the first session, I lost about $500 playing PS 100PLO8 and UB 200PL8, and in the second session, I clawed my way back to a $14 loss after been over $1k deep at one point. I don't know if it happens in NLHE cash games, but in PLO8 you can find yourself in many situations during a multi-table session where it's monster hand vs monster draw, or best vs second best (hence the title of this blog...). In both of these sessions, just like in 2009, I played my regular aggressive game, and made a few ill timed plays (which I can accept), however when coupled with monster hands getting crippled after all the chips have gone in just drives me insane. When it happens over and over again, I have difficulty leaving the table because I know if I get into the same situation again, the odds are still with me to win.
In PLO8, my two least favorite things to happen are
1) Where you have the best hand, only 1 low card on the flop and your opponents manages to go runner-runner low to chop the pot.
2) Where you have nut low with medium high, and opponent has medium low with good high, and your low gets counterfitted on the end giving the opponent the scoop.
In both of those situations, I feel like money has been stolen from me.
In the second session, I felt that I controlled my emotions better than I have ever done. That doesn't mean there isn't more room for improvement, but I was still able to hold back most of the gamble that tends to creep in late in those sessions where you think "This is the time where I'm going to hit my card and fuck them over". Instead, I kept playing my game, trying to get back into the situations where I was far ahead and they were chasing. It worked when I had 2 solid hands finally hold up right before quitting time (3:30AM) where I won $450 and $550 pots.
Rather than the usual break down (since I don't really have the time to cover all the cases), I'll just make it quick:
UB (mostly 200PLO8, and some HU SNGs): +$2096.56
PS (200PL8, 100PL8, 50PLO8, a couple HU SNGs): ($1521.05)
Total: $597.98 (the delta is some goofing around at the 25PLO8 on some misc OnGame sites)
Think I should be sticking to UB? Yeah, me too....
The killer on PS was the 100PL8 where I lost ($1156.30). Tough mix of idiots and solid players. Routinely, I'd get in good against the donks and lose, and then get caught in bad against the solid players and not catch up. Horrible combination...
Anyway, the month was profitable, to a decent clip no less, and I'm averaging $600/month, which I like. I'm spending some time re-reading Harrington on Hold'em to re-center my NLHE tourney game, which leads me to an interesting story from this past month which I'll post in a separate blog.
In the first session, I lost about $500 playing PS 100PLO8 and UB 200PL8, and in the second session, I clawed my way back to a $14 loss after been over $1k deep at one point. I don't know if it happens in NLHE cash games, but in PLO8 you can find yourself in many situations during a multi-table session where it's monster hand vs monster draw, or best vs second best (hence the title of this blog...). In both of these sessions, just like in 2009, I played my regular aggressive game, and made a few ill timed plays (which I can accept), however when coupled with monster hands getting crippled after all the chips have gone in just drives me insane. When it happens over and over again, I have difficulty leaving the table because I know if I get into the same situation again, the odds are still with me to win.
In PLO8, my two least favorite things to happen are
1) Where you have the best hand, only 1 low card on the flop and your opponents manages to go runner-runner low to chop the pot.
2) Where you have nut low with medium high, and opponent has medium low with good high, and your low gets counterfitted on the end giving the opponent the scoop.
In both of those situations, I feel like money has been stolen from me.
In the second session, I felt that I controlled my emotions better than I have ever done. That doesn't mean there isn't more room for improvement, but I was still able to hold back most of the gamble that tends to creep in late in those sessions where you think "This is the time where I'm going to hit my card and fuck them over". Instead, I kept playing my game, trying to get back into the situations where I was far ahead and they were chasing. It worked when I had 2 solid hands finally hold up right before quitting time (3:30AM) where I won $450 and $550 pots.
Rather than the usual break down (since I don't really have the time to cover all the cases), I'll just make it quick:
UB (mostly 200PLO8, and some HU SNGs): +$2096.56
PS (200PL8, 100PL8, 50PLO8, a couple HU SNGs): ($1521.05)
Total: $597.98 (the delta is some goofing around at the 25PLO8 on some misc OnGame sites)
Think I should be sticking to UB? Yeah, me too....
The killer on PS was the 100PL8 where I lost ($1156.30). Tough mix of idiots and solid players. Routinely, I'd get in good against the donks and lose, and then get caught in bad against the solid players and not catch up. Horrible combination...
Anyway, the month was profitable, to a decent clip no less, and I'm averaging $600/month, which I like. I'm spending some time re-reading Harrington on Hold'em to re-center my NLHE tourney game, which leads me to an interesting story from this past month which I'll post in a separate blog.
Friday, March 19, 2010
Whale !
What a night last night! I had been wanting to play in PokerStars 100k guaranteed tournament, and decided that last night was going to be the night. The $150+12 buy-in is pretty steep; other than SNGs, I've never bought into at MTT for more than $50+5, so I was going out on a limb.
While I play NLHE MTTs, I like to keep a cash game table running on the side to try and prevent me from being too loose when playing the MTT. Patience is not my greatest poker virtue, so it's much better to play 40 hands/hr when playing 3 tables, than it is to play 40 hands/hr at 1 table, especially a NLHE MTT. I decided to play 1 200PLO8 6max cash table at UB while the tournament was going on.
While I donked out of the tourney in the first 1/2 hour (semi-bluff on the turn ran into AA who was unwilling to fold to a scary board) I was fortunate to have the worst possible PLO8 player ever sitting to my left at the PLO8 table. IT WAS AWESOME! He played EVERY hand PF and more importantly, he played them passively. If there was a raise or a re-raise, it didn't matter, he'd call. Even better, he was hitting cards left right and center to break my opponents.
I have to admit, it took me about 20 minutes to stop bluffing the river at him cause he would not fold a marginal hand. I lost about $100 doing that, though it was $100 I had already won off him, so I was still floating around $200.
I was also blessed with a table with 3 opponents whom I play against often who are tight/trappy. This was perfect for me. Here's why:
It's the best hand of the night, because it gave the Whale so many chips that I could begin siphoning them off. He had bought in for $200 and was at his peak sitting with more that $850 in front of him. Slowly but surely, I began taking his chips away. I went from $200 to $650, while his stack dropped from $850 to $280. He called it a night at 11:45, and 1 of my opponents bolted immediately. I played a few more minutes, but all I was winning were the blinds, since everyone was folding to my raises now, so I left too.
Overall, with a couple of other games I played, I was up $450 on the night despite spending $162 on the tourney. That was worth it. I'll play the $150+12 again, but not soon. I think I need to work on my NLHE tourney game a little more at lower level to find and practice my strategy.
While I play NLHE MTTs, I like to keep a cash game table running on the side to try and prevent me from being too loose when playing the MTT. Patience is not my greatest poker virtue, so it's much better to play 40 hands/hr when playing 3 tables, than it is to play 40 hands/hr at 1 table, especially a NLHE MTT. I decided to play 1 200PLO8 6max cash table at UB while the tournament was going on.
While I donked out of the tourney in the first 1/2 hour (semi-bluff on the turn ran into AA who was unwilling to fold to a scary board) I was fortunate to have the worst possible PLO8 player ever sitting to my left at the PLO8 table. IT WAS AWESOME! He played EVERY hand PF and more importantly, he played them passively. If there was a raise or a re-raise, it didn't matter, he'd call. Even better, he was hitting cards left right and center to break my opponents.
I have to admit, it took me about 20 minutes to stop bluffing the river at him cause he would not fold a marginal hand. I lost about $100 doing that, though it was $100 I had already won off him, so I was still floating around $200.
I was also blessed with a table with 3 opponents whom I play against often who are tight/trappy. This was perfect for me. Here's why:
- Any pot I was going to play, which was as many as humanly possible, I would raise. Whale to my left would auto call. Then, most of the time the 3 t/t players would fold, but if they didn't, I would play the flop uber tight. Since they are so trappy, they would always check the flop to me hoping to get in a c/r. Since the Whale was passive, I knew he wasn't betting the flop without the goods, so I could check every flop I didn't like and bet every flop that hit me hard.
- If the t/t's didn't call, then it was value bet or check the whale. I won with so much trash, it was incredible.
It's the best hand of the night, because it gave the Whale so many chips that I could begin siphoning them off. He had bought in for $200 and was at his peak sitting with more that $850 in front of him. Slowly but surely, I began taking his chips away. I went from $200 to $650, while his stack dropped from $850 to $280. He called it a night at 11:45, and 1 of my opponents bolted immediately. I played a few more minutes, but all I was winning were the blinds, since everyone was folding to my raises now, so I left too.
Overall, with a couple of other games I played, I was up $450 on the night despite spending $162 on the tourney. That was worth it. I'll play the $150+12 again, but not soon. I think I need to work on my NLHE tourney game a little more at lower level to find and practice my strategy.
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