Monday, April 5, 2010

What are the odds?

Besides seeing AA, KK, QQ (me), JJ, and TT dealt to 5 players at a 10 handed table in a tournament (The AA actually held up to win, and I was the only one to fold PF when the action went: me- raise, next re-raise, all-in, all-in, all-in, me-fold, next all-in), the following is probably the coolest thing I have seen:

I was dealt the *exact* same cards in consecutive hands in a PLO8 HU SNG. The odds of this are 270274:1

Hand #45:
Hand #46:

I never did check the odds of AA, KK, QQ, JJ, and TT being dealt on the same hand at a 10 handed table. Lets see if I can work it out. Each individually is 1/221 to get one of those pairs, and 216/221 to not get any of those 5 pairs. There are 10 players at the table, therefore, by my count there are 252 permutations of pair / no pair to the 10 players. Rough calculations have [(1/221)^5]*[(216/221)^5]*252 for roughly 1:2350000000. Wow, either I really screwed up the math, or that was very rare indeed!

Speaking of odds and long shot outcomes, I won the SNG by spiking a 1 outer on the river (mind you I was up 5:1 in chip count at the time) when my trip 5's sucked out on trip 10's to a Tc5c2d board (I figured him for the low+flush draw) and neither of us had low backup.

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