Good fold

So I was playing 1/2 NLHE at Snake's Poekr club last night (www.snakespoker.com). It's a nice place with good staff about 20-30 minutes from my place. I'd already lost 1 buy-in when I limped with Ac7c and the board came 762-7. The table was loose/passive, so I'd be limping with hands that would make me the nuts if I hit. I bet my TPTK on the flop from EP and was called by a LP 2 to my left and a LAG across the table, who would come along with *any* draw or piece of the flop. The LAG had position on both of us, so when the second 7 hit on the turn, I checked fully expecting the LAG to bet. Instead the LP moved all-in for $30 to a $30ish pot. LAG called. WTF? Not what I was expecting, but since I had $155 behind, I was pretty sure I was ahead of LAG and behind LP. The question is whether LAG would call a raise from me. I tested the waters and moved all-in. If he folds, then I'll see that I can make some over-the-top moves on him, but I'm pretty sure I'm rooting for a call here with his second best. That's exactly what I got. LAG turns over K7 for second best to me (the side pot is $240 between us, and the main pot is $120). LP turns over 66 for a well played flopped set. The K on the river spoils the fun and LAG scoops the pot, causing me to rebuy.

This is important for the next hand, because I think I'm running a little scared of losing another stack. This time, I'm in 6th position, with mostly newer players at the table. A couple of limpers come in, and I raise to $12 with QdQh. Folds to the SB who raises it to $27. He's been somewhat active with the betting, but not 3-betting. We both have about $275 total. It folds back to me. I'm trying to figure out what he'd 3-bet me with here. Obviously, AA/KK/AK are in his range. What else? AQ/AJ/AT? JJ/TT/99? Since there hasn't been a ton of 3-betting, I'm rating the first 3 hands highest weight, and the others a smaller possibility. So, I may have made a mistake not trying to define my hand here and re-raising, but I decide to call, and evaluate the flop. It comes 6c 2c 6s. Unfortunately, now things are fuzzy. I can't remember, if he bets and I call, or if I bet and he calls. I think it is the latter, because I remember wondering what kind of hand would he call here with. I'm now leaning more towards a float with Ax than anything else.

The turn comes the As. Dammit scare card to hell. Again I get fuzzy on the betting order, but now, I end up in a situation when I'm looking at a $50 bet to me, which I think is a check-raise and I really have to decide if I'm putting the rest of my $200 stack in or folding. In the end, I muck my QQ face up and I get him to turn over 44. Dammit. I never thought he would have played a hand like that in that manner.

So why is this a good fold? Well, I still think he makes that play with all the hands I've listed above, so him having an A is much more likely than having a pocket pair lower than mine. I went to ProPokerTools to validate my theory, and this is what I found:

What I assumed his range is: Aa, ak, aq, aj, at, 77, 88, 99, tt, jj, kk,
http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=6c+6s+2c+As&g=he&h1=Qd+Qh&h2=Aa%2C+ak%2C+aq%2C+aj%2C+at%2C+77%2C+88%2C+99%2C+tt%2C+jj%2C+kk%2C

What his new likely range is: Aa, ak, aq, aj, at, 44, 55, 77, 88, 99, tt, jj, kk,
http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=6c+6s+2c+As&g=he&h1=Qd+Qh&h2=Aa%2C+ak%2C+aq%2C+aj%2C+at%2C+44%2C+55%2C+77%2C+88%2C+99%2C+tt%2C+jj%2C+kk%2C

So, even though I'm actually ahead here in this specific case, the aggregate likelyhood of me winning that pot against his range is -EV or close to 0 due to the size of the pot already.

Only when I remove AT from his range do I really start to come out ahead. The tools don't let me add a percentage to his AT, as in he'll raise there with AT 50% of the time, just to reduce it's weight on the calculation. But, I can assume AT in this analysis is just the aggregate of all the other Ax hands he might be playing there.