Last night, I entered a $100+9 satellite, using UPs (10000+900), for the UBOC main event with a guaranteed prize pool of $1M. The satellite had 5 guaranteed entries, so when only 46 players entered, they were paying out more than they were taking in from buy-ins, which is a +EV situation in the first place.
Starting stack of 3k, and 12 minute blinds starting at 10/20. I basically floated around my starting stack for the first hour. I was more aggressive than most at my table, so I was able to take a few little pots. I tried to avoid big ones, especially with the TAG to my left. I would have preferred to have won more before the break, which would have given me more room to operate, but at the same time, I wanted to give myself a chance to place.
After the first hour, with the blinds at 50/100, I started being a little more aggressive to start accumulating chips. My M is 20, and it was only going to get smaller with every blind raise, so I wanted to stay at around that M level. It was clear that most of the other players were waiting for big hands. In fact, most of the hands either did not see a flop, or were finished on the flop, except for the 3 way PF all-in between AQ, AK and KK (which held).
I managed to get up to 4500 chips with 30 players left, which wasn't bad, but not great either. I really did not have enough chips to survive running into a big hand with the smaller, 2k ish short stacks remaining at the table, so I couldn't be as aggressive as I wanted.
I ended up with pocket 5's after that 3 way all-in, against the AK from that 3-way. He moved all-in PF and I called. I felt he was steaming, but in the end, he had 77. I lost half my stack and was around 2.2k Soon after, we were down to 18, and I got switched tables. I needed to be aggressive, hoping that no one would call the new guy, and pushed all-in with J9. I ran into QQ, and proceeded to flop a J and turn another to double back to 4.5k. From there, I picked my spots, and moved all-in PF with random cards. The player 2 to my left was the chip leader, so I ran the risk of loose calls, and to his left was a very tight player, who would show his cards when he folded. I took the strategy to attack his BB to exploit. I would have been SO dead had he called any of my raises, but he didn't, except when I had JJ, and managed to double up again.
I kept following the all-in or fold strategy, since the blinds had gotten up to the point where, at 7k, my M was 5, and the chip leader had an M <20. It kept working as the table was tight enough. We got down to the final table, and then the arrival of the new players made it a little more difficult to push from early position, so I constrained myself to middle to late raises. With 8 players left, I had worked up to 11k, but was still only in 6th position with an M=5, I pushed on the button with KdQc. I was called by the SB (former chip leader), who had 20k chips. He had AsTd. The flop comes Qd3d2d. SWEET. Not only do I flop my Q, but the Ad is now a good card for me. Turn is an 8. River is the Ac. Dammit, he hit a 2-outer. :(
Oh well, so close....
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