Finals Analysis part 1

Let's gather up all the numbers I have as of now to see if I can make some inferences for the finals.  I'll refine this analysis when I go back next Tuesday and play again.  Hopefully I'm able to extract more data from the Floor Man for yesterday's semi-final, and next Monday's semi-final, on top of the info I'll get for the night I play.

Here's the chip counts for the final players on Tuesday:

87k
75k
61k
46.5k
32k
26.5k (me)
21k
18.5k
15.5k
8k

There were 900 entries available through qualifying, which would have worked out to 150 entries per semi-final.  A total of 391k chips were in play across 58 players on Tuesday. Each player earned their initial 5k stack through 1 entry, so that accounts for 290k in chips.  That leaves 101k additional chips, which means that the number of entries out of the 900 which were directed to stacks on Tuesday was 159 (101 additional 1k + 58 players).  There is one assumption here that the color up of the chips didn't add too much money in play.

That actually surprises me. Given that the Floor Man has told me that there were over 70 players registered for every night, I thought with the lower turn out there would be less than the 150 entry average.

All I know from the first semi-final on Monday is that there were only 42 players, and the top stacks to make it to the final were in the range of 54k.  Assuming that the last 4 semi-finals will have 70 players and assuming that they will have the same average chip stack as we did on Tuesday (which will be high since we had >150 entries) I came up with the following chip distribution for the final table:

> 100k: 4
90-100k: 4
80-90k: 1
70-80k: 5
60-70k: 2
50-60k: 5
40-50k: 2
30-40k: 10
20-30k: 11
10-20k: 10
0-10k: 6

It may seem weird that the top-stacks will be as evenly distributed as that, but because you have the combination of 6 separate tournaments, I do actually expect it to be very smooth at the top with all buckets above 50k to have roughly the same number of people.

And yes, some people will try to limp into the finals with 1BB or 2BB stacks...

We finished our tournament at the 2k/4k blind level which was the lowest blind level of the two nights.  Until I get more information next week, I'll assume that this will be the starting blind level for the Finals.

I'm also going to ignore multiple final qualifications, in which the player will forfeit his lowest chips stack(s) and play only with his/her big stack.  I'd much prefer to combine, but those are the rules.

I'll be starting with a 26.5k stack, with a projected average stack of 42.7k.  I'll be ~45th out of 60 players with 6.5BB.

My table draw will be critical, but since my M is still about 4.5, with the average M around 7, I can afford to go one round without open shoving to steal the blinds but that's about it.  I think the threshold of 20k is needed against a full table to not be called light on my shoves.  It will really be an exercise in my push/fold ranges, and figuring out my opponents call/fold ranges to my pushes.

I'm looking forward to next Tuesday.  It can't come soon enough!