Finals start the blinds at 1k/2k, unless tonight's tourney miraculously ends at 500/1k.
# players played:
Semi #1: 42
Semi #2: 58 (the most)
Semi #3: ??
Semi #4: 48
Semi #5: 44
Semi #6: 46
Chip distribution from semi #2
87 / 75 / 61 / 46.5 / 32 / 26.5 / 21 / 18.5 / 15.5 / 8 (391k total, 6.75k/pp starting)
Chip distribution from semi #5
75.5 / 55.5 / 36.5 / 26.5 / 22 / 19.5 / 19 / 19 / 6 / 5 (284.5k total, 6.5k/pp starting)
There were at least 2 double qualifications, eliminating stacks of 26.5k and 61k.
The chips distributions as a function of % of chips:
#2: 22.2% / 19.2% / 15.6% / 11.9% / 8.2% / 6.8% / 5.4% / 4.7% / 4.0% / 2.0%
#5: 26.4% / 19.5% / 12.8% / 9.3% / 7.7% / 6.9% / 6.75% / 6.75% / 2.1% / 1.8%
However, I had heard that semi #1 had 2 top stacks of about 54k, so it was less top-heavy compared to semi #5.
How does this help me? I guess it really doesn't... It would appear that my stack of 26.5k will be below average, but middle of the pack. Total chips in play, before removal of double qualifications, will be probably 1.9M, and I think it's fair to assume total chips in play after removing double qualifications will be about 1.7M to 1.8M. That means average will be about 30k, which is 15BB. The blinds levels will be
1k/2k
2k/4k
4k/8k
After that, I'm assuming it'll be 5k/10k given how they structure the early part of the tourney, but no qualifier has ever reached that point, so I don't know for sure.
I've got to figure out how to get though the first couple blind levels first, and that's the tough part. With 13BB dropping to 6.5BB after the first 20 minutes, it would seem that I'd have to be aggressive. However, there has been talk that "chop talk" starts at around 20 people left. So do I try and tread water and steal no more than once per round? Or do I go out swinging and try and build buffer or a big stack early?
I guess part will be feel:
- Are the players playing tight not to go out on the first few hands?
- Are the players on my left loose callers from what I know?
- Do the players on my left know that I'm prone to shove wide when my stack is short compared to the BB?
- Will they care?
- Will the short stacks gamble appropriately?
- Will the big stacks over or under defend their blinds?
The other part will be studying my Nash Equilibriums for push/fold. I've played a ton of Hyper-Turbo SNGs on PokerStars back in the day. Those were the epitome of knowing when and how to push or fold. However, the crowd participating here are different than those players, and I'm wondering if I should adapt or try and play as close to what I think GTO play is (which, I only have a vague idea of what that would be in this case...)
Lots to think of. If anyone out there has some feedback, let me know. Thanks,
As much as you need to be aware of where you stand in relation to the whole field - who you have at your table will drive how you play.
ReplyDeleteYou might be below average / short overall - but if your entire table is in the same position, then you're average (or if you're lucky, possibly among the chip leaders at your table!).
Just remember to adjust based on that (and your read of the table after an orbit or two) and not to go in with a preconceived plan.
After an orbit or 2? I will have lost 15-30% of my stack by then! :D
ReplyDeleteThis has been my plan thus far: I've studied various sites' push/fold ranges for various stack sizes and seat positions. These are approximate GTO (game theory optimal) ranges as most of these were generated and tested vs a computer. I'm trying to get comfortable again with those ranges as they were very influential and useful in my Hyper-Turbo SNG days.
If I've got that base down, then I'll have optimal play ready in the event that I can't figure out better exploitative ranges versus my table draw.
In reality, unless I'm gifted with a tight table that will continuously fold to my all-ins, it's clear that I'm going to have to get "lucky".
You can approximate a short stack tournament to a heads-up bracket style tournament, where each match is decided by a coin flip. With ~60 players and an average stack, I've got to win 6 flips to win the tourney. The biggest mistake in these is folding too much when you are given the option to open-shove, as there is too much in the pot with the blinds not to fight for it ...