Hand analysis

I marked 15 hands for review on my night of hell last Thursday (see EV graphs from previous post). I want to analyze these and find mistakes that I can correct. Hopefully it won't be too difficult to read seeing that I'm mostly writing this for myself to help me walk through the hands properly.

Hand #1 400PLO8:
I've got AhQsJh7h in the SB/BTN playing HU against S2D (VPIP=40, PFR/25). I raise to $12 PF, and he calls. Flop is 7c Tc Kh. I've got a pair plus a wrap. Odds are my opponent missed that flop (unless he's got a flush draw), so I'm likely ahead, but want to win this here. I bet $20 and get check-raised pot ($84). This bet is screaming FD to me, so I call $64 (pot is $192 and opponent has $115 behind). I'm either ahead or have draws to be ahead. The turn is the Qh, giving me the nut straight and the heart nut flush draw (NFD). My opponent moves all-in, to which I gladly call. He spikes his club on the river.
Flop: http://twodimes.net/h/?z=7508940
Turn http://twodimes.net/h/?z=7508939

Analysis: Almost everything here, except the call of the check/raise, is standard. My starting hand is a poor raising hand full table, but a good raising hand HU. The cbet on the flop is right in that most opponents are playing low draws and it has plenty of fold equity. Now, should I have called the check-raise? I have 3 options: fold, call, or push him all-in. I've only got a straight draw+ at this point, and am a definite dog to a FD+ at this point (which happens to be his actual hand with Kc9c5d4d), but a favorite to a simple FD (change Kc to Ac or Qc). I'm a dog to a set, though I'm getting the right price ((64+115)/(64+115+115+128)). Apparently, this is a borderline push. Given the amount he has left after the check/raise, I'm thinking now that I've got 0 fold equity in this spot. So, I think I've got a 0EV situation on the all-in push. As for the call, I've got position, which will help me assuming he doesn't shove every turn. Even then, I've got 11 cards (non-club A, Q, J, 9 and 7) which give me a solid hand against his range. In reality, I think I'm only folding the 9 clubs and 6 K's or T's left in the deck, since I already believe that I'm ahead or close to it at this point.

Conclusion: Nothing wrong with the way it was played, I'd do it again.


Hand #2 400PLO8:
I've got Kd5d2s2h in the SB/BTN HU against S2D. I raise to $12 PF, and he calls. I flop the nut flush on a AdQd8d board. He checks, I bet $18 and he calls (pot now $56). The tells me he has a flush as well with some low cards. He's trying to scoop when he hits his low. The turn is the 3h. This is a good turn for me, since it may have counterfitted his low. I now have nut/second-nut. He checks, I bet out $36 and he calls (pot now $128). The river is the 9d. A blank for all intents and purposes. He all of a sudden leads out for $128, I have nut/second-nut so I push my remaining $278 to the middle, and he calls. Oh, wait, I don't have nut/second-nut, I have second-nut/second-nut. The MF'er just rivered a straight flush to escape with half the pot. I was so far ahead on the turn.

Conclusion: As played, I think I got the most money in the pot as I could. However, that hand pissed me off, and kind of stuck to me. It started my negative thought spiral.


Hand #3 400PLO8:
In the SB/BTN against S2D. I limp with 8dTc4h3d. S2D raises from the BB to $12 and I call. He's telling me he has an A with some other good cards. The flop comes Js9dQd. I've got second-nut straight with a weak FD. He checks and I bet pot ($24) and he calls. I'm not liking that call. He's got something that works with that flop. I'm either beat or he's drawing better than me. The turn is a Kh. He checks, and I check as well. The card makes a bunch of hands that he can have now beat me (AT, KT, QT, JT, T9), and I don't think I'm ahead enough times to bet. The river is a Qh. If I wasn't beat on the turn, I'm pretty sure I'm beat now. It's possible he had a naked FD on the flop, but I doubt that. He checks, which actually tells me that he didn't boat up, but I check behind him and he tables Ad4c6hTh. Turned a 3 outer straight.

Conclusion: This guy is nuts. The only thing that makes sense is that he's drawing to a 3 outer + naked Ace bluff. Sucks that I had to lose this hand on the 3 outer though. This hand continues my anger spiral even if I only lost $36...


Hand #4 400PLO8:
5 handed with UG1 (VPIP=14,PFR=4), TWP (VPIP=33,PFR=15), RD (VPIP=25, PFR=7), and OMGD (VPIP=36, PFR=27). UG1 is uber tight, and very predictable. I like playing against him. RD is not as tight, but still predictable enough that I don't mind him at the table. TWP is a tough hombre. I lost $800 HU to him one night, but figured out how he plays me, and which hands he wants to push against me. As such, I got my money back in a few rings games against him a few days later when I caught him in bad spots. Since then, he's been playing tighter against me, so it seems he is respecting my play and when he bets into me, he means business. OMGD is new. I only have 250 hands against him, but he seems to be too loose and can be caught in bad situations. I want to play against him and try to flop a huge hand.

I'm on the BTN with Ks6sQdJc. It folds (TWP, RD) to me, so I pop it to $14. OMGD in the SB re-pops it to $46, and UG1 folds. He's loose enough that I call. Actually, this is a mistake, and one of the biggest problems I have. Clearly I can find a better spot to put my money in against this guy. I need to be more judicious when calling 3-bets, and this hand only has 1-way value with no low. It's a piss poor candidate for calling a 3-bet with.

The flop comes Kc3s6d. Ok, not so bad for my holding. I'm likely ahead for high. Against random AA hands, A2 hands, I'm even money. I'm a slight dog against AK2*, and probably the worst against A45*. So when he bets the pot ($96) on the flop, which is consistent with an AA** play, I see an opportunity to take his stack so I jump on it and re-pop it to $311, which is what he has left. He tables As3d9dKh for flopped top-bottom 2-pair and backdoor low, which is behind my hand. He turns his 9h, and I blank on the river (2h).

Conclusion: I got myself into this mess, by calling a 3-bet with too weak a hand PF. I should control that more, even against super aggro players. I don't think my flop play is bad. It's a fold or push play, and I'm getting 311/717 which is good enough odds (even assuming 0 fold equity) for most of my opponents range except A45*.


Hand #5 400PLO8:
In the BB HU against S2D with AhKh7s3s. We both have about $400. He min-raises to $8, and I re-pop it to $24 and he calls. I don't like 3-betting OOP from the blinds very often, as it gives away the strength of my hand. But given the way S2D has been playing, he's calling my bet with significantly weaker hands often enough to compensate for the fact I've announce how strong my hand is. The flop comes Qs8s7d. I've got a strong hand HU: pair + weak FD + 2nd nut low draw. I have to bet out here, especially since I'm either going to be called or re-raised. No point in check-raising, if I can get all his chips in the middle by betting first. I make a pot sized bet ($48) and he gladly re-pops it to $192. I move in for $388 and he calls showing Qh7h3c4d. I'm a 3:2 favorite at this point. The turn is the 9s and river is the 2d and I scoop the pot.

Conclusion: Good hand, played well, good result. So few of those during that session.

Hand #6 400PLO8
7-handed (SB= opp1, BB=GURC, RD, opp2, me, opp3, UG1), holding Ah6hTc9d with $143 behind. This is the same table as hand #4, but about an hour later. RD limps, opp2 folds, I call, opp3 calls, UG1 folds, SB completes and GURC checks. Flop comes Ts 3d 5h, Everyone checks, to opp3 who makes it $20. Everyone else folds, but I decide to re-pop it on a check raise, to $80, opp3 gladly makes it $140 for the rest of my chips. I call, and find out I'm actually ahead of Kd7d4h2s. However, the turn is a Jc and the river is a 6s, completing their up and down straight draw.

Analysis: What was I thinking on the check-raise? I'm not sure... I didn't check with the intention of raising. I checked because I had no idea where anyone was at that point in time and my hand was so-so. But once opp3 bet and everyone else folded, my hand got stronger. However, in retrospect, it still wasn't strong enough to warrant a check-raise. I have TPTK, and 4th best low draw, and any card that improves my low draw, makes a straight possible on the board. I'm putting up $80 to win $40 if opp3 folds or $140 to win $160 if they call/raise. The opponent is unknown, so I should have assumed that they had something. Their actual hand was at the worst part of their possible range, and since they re-raised with it, I now know I had zero fold equity. Against stronger hands, like 246X and sets I'm not getting the right price.

Conclusion: This was a bad play. I gambled on the flop rather than try to think through the situation. Even though this exact situation was +EV when the money was in, for all possible situations taken together, this was a -EV play.

Hand #7 400PLO8:
HU against S2D. I have $750 and he has $400. I'm in the BTN/SB with Tc4d7c5c and I raise to $12 and he calls. The flop comes 5s6d5h. He checks, and I bet pot ($24). This is standard, because, I likely have the best hand here, and want to take the pot down before a low on the turn hits chopping the pot. However, he check-raises me to $96. This is where I make a mistake. I did not stop and think. He's saying he has a 5. His 5 has to be better than mine. I mean, I'm playing T5 right now, so A5, K5, Q5, J5, and 65 all beat me (as does 66). Instead, I ignore the fact that I could just call and play the turn accordingly, I re-pop it to $312, knowing his c/r means he's ready to go to war with his hand. He puts the rest of his chips in and shows Qh6hQd5d for a full house. I'm still +EV at this point, though barely. The cards run Jd Td, and I river a better full house.

Conclusion: This hand should show that I'm not thinking straight this session. I'm lucky to have the better low draw at this point, but in reality, I could have been up against A5[baby]X and been in serious trouble. I need to realize that when I'm more willing to gamble on the flop, it's because it's the easier option than outplaying my opponents. In that case, I should be quitting the game. S2D has shown that he's willing to get in with weak hands, so means that there are going to be plenty of opportunities for me to get his stack and I don't need to jump on any of the marginal opportunities.


Hand #8 400PLO8
4 handed. SB=FN (VPIP=30, PFR=17), BB=opp1, S2D, BTN=me. Folds to me with As5s5cAd. Easy raise to $14. SB min raises to $28. I opt to call, as 4-betting makes it obvious I have AA. Pot is now $60, and FN has $370 behind and I have $825 . Flop comes 6h7d9c. This flop should not have hit my opponent (hands with T8 or 86 are not 3-betting hands typically). A 3-bet from the SB usually means A23, or AAbaby, which is also what I have, so I'm thinking I'm tied or ahead of A23. FN bets $38, and I think I'm ahead, so I push to $174, and then he moves in. Oops. WTF?! I have to call as I'm getting 3:1 on my money at this point. I do, and he flips Ah7h4c7c. I'm WAY behind. I need an A or an 8 for high, and a 4 for low. The board runs Qc Jc, and I lose $400 on the hand.

Analysis: This one is tough for me. I'm a slight dog to AAxx, but in good shape against A23*. I just did not see him waking up with a made hand there. Did I also have to lose $400 in this hand? If my read is right, then I'm +EV. I guess what I learned from this hand is that my 3-bet range for FN is incorrect. It is much wider, and should include a variety of double suited A-baby combinations. If I take that into account, I think the prudent play there would have been to merely call the flop as that is no longer a safe flop for my hand and I still have position. I probably call the turn as well in this case, though can now fold many rivers. In that scenario, I save chips. Now if my opponent has A23x, then he likely checks the turn, and I bet, so I miss out on some equity there if he folds. If he's got AAxx, then I don't think I lose anything as he bets the turn, though I guess I fold that river, so I save some chips there.

Conclusion: Updated FN 3-betting range, and play accordingly. Also, this is another hand where I pushed/gambled the flop rather than played poker.

Hand #9 400PLO8
Same table as above 4 hands later, I'm on the BTN again. Folds to me, I make it $14 with QcJcJh8s. FN in the SB calls. and opp1 folds. $32 in the pot, I have $441 and FN has $785. Flop comes Qd9c7c. FN checks, and I bet the pot. He re-pops it to $128. I make it $416, and he puts the rest of my chips in. He turns over Qs4c3c7s. The river runs 4h 3d, and he scoops the $912 pot. I was actually a favorite when the chips when in.

Analysis: None to be made. I was not playing smart poker here. I wanted to get my chips back from the previous hand, and found myself a flop to do just that. I have top-pair + FD + gut shot straight draw. In reality, we are too deep for me to be calling the check-raise here, but I wasn't thinking about his hand at all. All I saw were my cards and the potential for a huge pot.

Conclusion: If I wasn't on tilt before, losing $900 in the span of 5 minutes has definitely brought me there now.


Hand #10 400PLO8:
Same table as above, I've re-bought and am back up to $536 UTG. I raise with Ks5cJs6c (yes, I'm on tilt, not a good raise). Everyone calls. Pot is $56. Flop comes 5s6s5d. Checked to me, so I bet pot with the underfull. FN folds, opp1 calls, and S2D check-raises to $280, I'm on tilt so I gladly push the rest of my stack in. opp1 folds and S2D calls with Ad4d5hQs. I just need to fade an A or a Q. Even still, I'm a dog because he has the low draw with his hand. I don't get unlucky as the cards run 8h and 3d.

Conclusion: I profit $30 on a hand I should never have been playing in the first place.


Hand #11 200PLO8:
I've opened up a 200PLO8 table to try and reverse my luck. 7 handed, except S2D is also at my table. S2D opens to $7m and I call from the BTN with As5h8cQh. Not actually a bad play. The blinds get out of the way. The flop comes 7d Js Th. He checks, which I believe to mean that he has a good low hand that missed with only 7 low card on the flop. However, I only have a double belly-buster (9 or K for straight), so I check behind. Turn brings the Jh. He bets out $12.50 to a $17 pot. I suspect he is buying the pot (I'm on tilt, so my reads aren't too good). I raise him to $54.50, at which point he calls. When he does this, I have to read that he's either got AA or AhXh. The river comes Td. He checks, I bet out for $96 to a $128 pot. After a long time, he calls. Unfortunately, he hit trips on the river, as he was holding AhAd2cTc.

Analysis: Is that a bad river bet? He knows I'm out of control, so he's going to be calling me light, and it wouldn't be the first time that he's called me with AA to a paired board. The fact that he hit his T was a bonus for him.

Conclusion: If I can face S2D again, I need to remember how light he is going to call my rivers, and milk them for all their worth. As for this hand, it's becoming pretty clear to me why I lost so much money that night.

Hand #12: 400PLO8
4 handed. SB=opp1, BB=S2D ($607), NE14D, me ($670). Folds to me on the BTN, and I make it Ah5h3s6c. S2D re-pops it to $44 and I call. Given the way we've been playing each other for the last 2.5 hours, I have to call, as my hand has good value, though I still have to be careful. Flop comes 2s 4h Jc. A pretty decent flop. I've got nut low draw, and a pair. If I'm against AA2 or A2PP (where PP is a pair), I'm drawing to low. If I'm up against A23X (X not a J), then I'm ahead and looking to quarter my opponent. Given this, and I'm on tilt, I looking to be pushing this flop. He checks, I bet, he check/raises (again!) and I push the rest in. He tables As2c3dTc. Turn is 2h and river is 7c and I'm the one who is quartered.

Analysis: Even though I'm far ahead in this hand, but get unlucky, I shouldn't be moving in on the flop. I should be calling and evaluating the turn. His check/raise means he's willing to go all the way with the hand, so why not take a second to protect yourself against some bad cards on the turn. Also, I'm still behind AA2X, so I should be protecting myself in case that's what I'm up against.

Conclusion: Another hand where I rush to gamble the flop, when in this spot, I could have saved $100 by calling the flop and folding to that 2. I don't see him betting the turn if it comes K or Q unless he has AA2 in this spot, rather than A23, so he'd be telling me if I'm ahead or behind. Any low card and he's committing his chips regardless.


Hand #13 200PLO8
4 handed. SB=me ($255), opp1 ($261), UG1, NE14D. Folds to me, I call with Kc6c9d2d, and opp1 raises to $8 and I call. I should have folded here. This is not a good hand to go against an Ababy hand. Flop comes Kd 2s Qh. I check to check/raise (not a good idea with my hand, but I'm not thinking right), and he bets $12, I raise to $48 and he calls. The turn is the 4d. I have a FD with my 2 pair. I think I'm now solid, so I bet out, and he moves in and I call. He tables Ad Kh 4h 4c, and I'm in trouble. I wasn't even a favorite on the flop, which is the perils of playing top/bottom two pair in this game. However, him turning his set sucked royally! I'm I'm really far behind.

Conclusion: When I'm on tilt, double suited hands look very pretty and playable, when in fact they are simply a money drain unless they had some other merits!

Hand #14 400PLO8
3 handed. SB=opp1, BB=TWP, me ($300). I raise with KsTs9sQd, which is fair 3 handed. SB calls, and TWP re-pops it to $56. My hand plays well against TWP's 3-betting range here. I can double up with the right flop, so $56 to implied $600 is worth it. I call and SB calls. Flop comes KhJdJs. opp1 checks, TWP bets $116 to the $168 pot. I'm trying to break him, so I re-pop to $243 (all-in). He c-bets a lot, so he may very well fold. Unfortunately, opp1 calls in the SB, which means he has a J, which causes TWP to fold. I'm behind to Ad3dJc6h, turn is 4s, giving me hope, and the river is the 3s absolutely breaking my heart because I see winning flush before I realize it's losing flush to full house.

Conclusion: Given my stack size, and no knowledge about opp1, this hand was played correctly to extract maximum from TWP. opp1 just had the right hand at the right time.

Hand #15 400PLO8
5 handed. SB=me ($323), BB=opp1, TWP, opp2, opp3. Fold, call, call, I complete with QsQc4h3h, and BB checks. Flop is Qd Tc 4d. I bet $12 into the $16 pot. BB raises to $24, opp2 calls, opp3 folds, so I decide to protect my set here, and make it $112 to continue. BB folds, but opp2 calls. I put him on a FD. The turn is the 8s. I put the rest of my chips in the middle, only to see that I walked into a massive wrap on the flop: AhJsKs9c. We were even money on the flop, but he now hit his straight on the turn and I have to catch up on the river. Nope, as the Jh falls.

Analysis: I should be calling this flop not 3-betting it. On a non-descript turn, I should bet again, and check any straight or flush card. In PLO/PLO8, people LOVE their FD. They will go all the way with it on the flop. However, these same people are much more hesitant to do so on the turn. So with opp2 called, I was pretty sure I was against a FD. I was wrong, but he's not calling with any straight draws other than the complete wrap he has there.

Conclusion: Another flop gamble. His call with a straight draw to a flush draw board is a mistake so I need to note that about this player.

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Well, that took 3 complete days to write. It has given me plenty of insight into the mistakes I made last Thursday. The biggest one is my desired to gamble the flop. I can play this game very well using pot control. I don't need to leave things up to chance as I did in many of the hands that played out that night.

As an aside, I'm not posting any of these hands on the 2+2 forums. Most of the people there advocate the "get it in on the flop" strategy I was using when I was on tilt. I'm just tired of the same feedback from the guys who play at the .10/.25 levels. I haven't gotten any useful feedback to any of the questions or hands I've posted. It's too bad, some people say they've gotten great feedback. I just have not....